Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For both carriers, rates and OP margins surged in H224, but have fallen ever since then</li>
<li>Though it's a distinct market, Intra-Asia conditions are impacted by deep-sea conditions</li>
<li>TS Lines' strong share outperformance vs market leader Wan Hai Lines is not justified</li>
</ul>


For both carriers, rates and OP margins surged in H224, but have fallen ever since then
Though it's a distinct market, Intra-Asia conditions are impacted by deep-sea conditions
TS Lines' strong share outperformance vs market leader Wan Hai Lines is not justified


Intra-Asia Container Carriers Wan Hai Lines, TS Lines Also Feeling the Pain of Lower Freight Rates

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Spot <em>freight rates</em> are fading again in mid-April, despite ongoing conflict in Strait of Hormuz</li>
<li>Spot <em>fuel prices</em> remain high and we believe Q126 OP margins will show sharp compression</li>
<li>We expect shares in container segment to give back all of March's gains, and then some</li>
</ul>


Spot freight rates are fading again in mid-April, despite ongoing conflict in Strait of Hormuz
Spot fuel prices remain high and we believe Q126 OP margins will show sharp compression
We expect shares in container segment to give back all of March's gains, and then some


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iran Conflict has driven up fuel prices near-term, which will eat into carrier profitability</li>
<li>But the conflict also delays potential Suez re-opening, which is positive for supply side</li>
<li>Shares of carriers have mostly jumped in March, with some up as much as 11% MTD </li>
</ul>


Iran Conflict has driven up fuel prices near-term, which will eat into carrier profitability
But the conflict also delays potential Suez re-opening, which is positive for supply side
Shares of carriers have mostly jumped in March, with some up as much as 11% MTD 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> reported a 18.9% increase in FY25 net profit, the high end of the positive profit alert range. Net cash is healthy at 3.3% of market capitalisation.</li>
<li>The US-Iran conflict will tighten vessel supply and increase freight rates. Meanwhile, through fuel surcharges, SITC can mostly pass through the higher fuel costs. </li>
<li>At 4.3x P/B, against an ROE of 41-45% for FY26-27F, valuations are not overly stretched. The FY26 dividend yield of 7.7% is attractive.</li>
</ul>



SITC International (1308 HK) reported a 18.9% increase in FY25 net profit, the high end of the positive profit alert range. Net cash is healthy at 3.3% of market capitalisation.
The US-Iran conflict will tighten vessel supply and increase freight rates. Meanwhile, through fuel surcharges, SITC can mostly pass through the higher fuel costs. 
At 4.3x P/B, against an ROE of 41-45% for FY26-27F, valuations are not overly stretched. The FY26 dividend yield of 7.7% is attractive.


SITC International (1308 HK): Decently Attractive

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 6th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, China Life, Xiaomi, Petrochina, ICBC, China Pacific Insurance, Kuaishou, Hua Hong Semiconductor, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 6th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, China Life, Xiaomi, Petrochina, ICBC, China Pacific Insurance, Kuaishou, Hua Hong Semiconductor, BYD.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 6th): Alibaba, Tencent, China Life, Xiaomi, Petrochina, ICBC

Hong Kong

T.S. Lines is a container shipping company specializing in intra-Asian trade routes and niche services, offering mainline container services and specialized vessel chartering. The company provides comprehensive shipping solutions including cargo tracking, schedules, and handling of project cargo. T.S. Lines was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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T.S. Lines (2510 HK)

Intra-Asia Container Carriers Wan Hai Lines, TS Lines Also Feeling the Pain of Lower Freight Rates

Revenue and OP margins for Intra-Asia container carriers Wan Hai Lines and TS Lines surged in H224 but have fallen sharply since then. We expect...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

March price momentum remained weak, and now in mid-April spot rates are beginning to fall. Fuel costs have risen sharply, and Q1-Q2 carrier margins...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

The conflict in Iran has lead to a doubling of fuel prices, which adds to pressure on container carrier profitability. The group's outperformance...

Tracking Traffic

SITC International (1308 HK): Decently Attractive

SITC Intl reports strong FY25 net profit growth, and the US-Iran conflict is not expected to have a material impact on its profitability....

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 6th): Alibaba, Tencent, China Life, Xiaomi, Petrochina, ICBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Life (2628...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intra-Asia Container Carriers Wan Hai Lines, TS Lines Also Feeling the Pain of Lower Freight Rates

Revenue and OP margins for Intra-Asia container carriers Wan Hai Lines and TS Lines surged in H224 but have fallen sharply since then. We expect...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Price Weak, April Spot Rates, Too | Fuel Starting to Bite

March price momentum remained weak, and now in mid-April spot rates are beginning to fall. Fuel costs have risen sharply, and Q1-Q2 carrier margins...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Iran Conflict Lifts Fuel Prices, Spot Rates, & Carrier Shares

The conflict in Iran has lead to a doubling of fuel prices, which adds to pressure on container carrier profitability. The group's outperformance...

Tracking Traffic

SITC International (1308 HK): Decently Attractive

​SITC Intl reports strong FY25 net profit growth, and the US-Iran conflict is not expected to have a material impact on its profitability....

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Mar 6th): Alibaba, Tencent, China Life, Xiaomi, Petrochina, ICBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Life (2628...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SITC Intl reports strong FY25 net profit growth, and the US-Iran conflict is not expected to have a material impact on its profitability....