Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

<ul>
<li>As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.</li>
<li>SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.</li>
</ul>


As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.
SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.


Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

<ul>
<li>Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.</li>
<li>Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.</li>
<li>We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months</li>
</ul>


Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.
Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.
We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months


Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> raised US$26.5bn selling 177.9m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc-a4e8e2ec-1a75-4752-b58c-eaa0d074d145" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50283:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (SKHY US)</a> at US$149/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc-a4e8e2ec-1a75-4752-b58c-eaa0d074d145" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50283:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (SKHY US)</a> closed at a 15.5% premium to the local line.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in the local shares and the ADR line over the next few months. The ADR line could trade at a premium in the near-term.</li>
<li>We expect the ADR to trade between a 30-35% premium in the very short-term and that could drift lower following the limited passive buying in the ADR.</li>
</ul>



SK Hynix (000660 KS) raised US$26.5bn selling 177.9m shares of SK Hynix (SKHY US) at US$149/share. SK Hynix (SKHY US) closed at a 15.5% premium to the local line.
There will be passive buying in the local shares and the ADR line over the next few months. The ADR line could trade at a premium in the near-term.
We expect the ADR to trade between a 30-35% premium in the very short-term and that could drift lower following the limited passive buying in the ADR.


SK Hynix (000660 KS; SKHY US): Updated Index Flows/Timing & Where Could the Premium Settle?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

As expected last month, Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment billings and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Andrew Lu

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

SK Hynix (000660 KS; SKHY US): Updated Index Flows/Timing & Where Could the Premium Settle?

With the market appearing to have finally worked out (as we stated in the Insight and based on the prospectus) that SK Hynix's conversion could be...

Brian Freitas

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