Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.</li>
<li>AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.</li>
<li>Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.</li>
</ul>


SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.
AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.
Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.


SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

<ul>
<li>FY24 AI revenue as guided US$12.2bn. 1Q25 AI revenue to increase 65% YoY. FY27 “serviceable market” or “opportunity” could reach US$60-90bn. Actual revenues could be ~70% of that.</li>
<li>Mngt announced another 2 hyperscale customers (one is Apple). At least 1 new new customer could add significant revenues before FY27 (adding to the 60-90bn above). </li>
<li>Stock up 14% aftermarket, trading at 32x FY25 EPS. We expect Consensus EPS to revise up 10-20%. Nvidia trades at 32x next FY (FY26). Positive to suppliers Hynix and TSMC.</li>
</ul>


FY24 AI revenue as guided US$12.2bn. 1Q25 AI revenue to increase 65% YoY. FY27 “serviceable market” or “opportunity” could reach US$60-90bn. Actual revenues could be ~70% of that.
Mngt announced another 2 hyperscale customers (one is Apple). At least 1 new new customer could add significant revenues before FY27 (adding to the 60-90bn above). 
Stock up 14% aftermarket, trading at 32x FY25 EPS. We expect Consensus EPS to revise up 10-20%. Nvidia trades at 32x next FY (FY26). Positive to suppliers Hynix and TSMC.


Broadcom: AI Hyper-Growth to Continue – Worries of a Slowdown Are Wrong – Positive to SK Hynix, TSMC

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.</li>
<li>TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.</li>
</ul>


TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.
TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.
Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.


TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nicolas Baratte

Broadcom: AI Hyper-Growth to Continue – Worries of a Slowdown Are Wrong – Positive to SK Hynix, TSMC

Broadcom strong growth potential in AI revenue continues. US$12.2bn AI revenues in FY24 , could grow to a market opportunity of $60-90bn in FY27....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

​SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nicolas Baratte

Broadcom: AI Hyper-Growth to Continue – Worries of a Slowdown Are Wrong – Positive to SK Hynix, TSMC

Broadcom strong growth potential in AI revenue continues. US$12.2bn AI revenues in FY24 , could grow to a market opportunity of $60-90bn in FY27....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.

​TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

SK hynix's AI revenues set to double in 2025, leading in roadmap and manufacturing, with sustainable lead over Samsung and potential for increased...

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

TSMC's cash dividend has surged by 65% in 2 years and is expected to keep increasing. Consensus forecasts show TSMC's EPS growth matching ASML's,...