Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level; Record Short Interest in Local</li>
<li>UMC: +1.1% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium to Short</li>
<li>ASE: +2.9% Premium; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level; Record Short Interest in Local
UMC: +1.1% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium to Short
ASE: +2.9% Premium; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 - July 4.</li>
<li>US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.</li>
<li>Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 - July 4.
US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.</li>
<li>Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.</li>
<li>The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.
Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.
The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.


Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

<ul>
<li>
1Q25 Smartphone Chipset Market Share Data -- Shows Growth Outperformance for Mediatek</li>
<li>
Nvidia Partnership Helping Mediatek Break Into PCs and Handheld Gaming Devices -- High End Graphics Performance for Small Form Factors</li>
<li>
Smartphones Expected to Rapidly Switch to Advanced Node Chipsets by 2026 -- This Plays to Mediatek's TSMC Advantage</li>
</ul>



1Q25 Smartphone Chipset Market Share Data -- Shows Growth Outperformance for Mediatek

Nvidia Partnership Helping Mediatek Break Into PCs and Handheld Gaming Devices -- High End Graphics Performance for Small Form Factors

Smartphones Expected to Rapidly Switch to Advanced Node Chipsets by 2026 -- This Plays to Mediatek's TSMC Advantage


Mediatek Rising in Smartphones and Beyond - Q1 Market Share, Nvidia Partnership, TSMC Node Advantage

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.</li>
<li>What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   </li>
<li>Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. </li>
</ul>


US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.
What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   
Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. 


US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Many Asian/Pacific indices and stocks are overbought, US stocks are not yet overbought (apart from NVDA), Gold and Crude oil are down, 10-Year US...

Nico Rosti

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC High Premium Persisting, Record Short Interest in Local

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4

Many Asian/Pacific indices and stocks are overbought, US stocks are not yet overbought (apart from NVDA), Gold and Crude oil are down, 10-Year US...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

​In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Mediatek Rising in Smartphones and Beyond - Q1 Market Share, Nvidia Partnership, TSMC Node Advantage

​Mediatek's growth outperformance in smartphone chipset market. Nvidia partnership delivering high-end graphics for Mediatek in PCs and handheld...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

​US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...

Mediatek's growth outperformance in smartphone chipset market. Nvidia partnership delivering high-end graphics for Mediatek in PCs and handheld...

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...