Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). </li>
<li>CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  </li>
<li>The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.</li>
</ul>


Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). 
CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  
The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.


Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind</li>
<li>TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging</li>
<li>MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.</li>
<li>Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.</li>
</ul>


Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.
Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.
Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.


Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

<ul>
<li>Intel layoffs now extending to production in US, Israel. Intel’s revenue/employee is half that of AMD, TSMC. An AMD or TSMC employee generates 2x more revenue than an Intel employee. </li>
<li>Intel shareloss in PC, Server continues. Over the past 4 years Intel lost 6 percentage points PC market share (down to 76%), 13 percentage points in server (down to 73%).   </li>
<li>Intel is now without an AI / GPU roadmap. It looks bad but the twist is it helps Intel requalify with Nvidia DGX, replacing AMD. Weakness breeds strength.   </li>
</ul>


Intel layoffs now extending to production in US, Israel. Intel’s revenue/employee is half that of AMD, TSMC. An AMD or TSMC employee generates 2x more revenue than an Intel employee. 
Intel shareloss in PC, Server continues. Over the past 4 years Intel lost 6 percentage points PC market share (down to 76%), 13 percentage points in server (down to 73%).   
Intel is now without an AI / GPU roadmap. It looks bad but the twist is it helps Intel requalify with Nvidia DGX, replacing AMD. Weakness breeds strength.   


Intel Is Shrinking (Headcount), Declining (Market Share), but Weakness Can Be a Strength

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated holding was USD1,057.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD392mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components, United Integrated Services, Eva Airways, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Chicony Electronics, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated holding was USD1,057.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD392mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components, United Integrated Services, Eva Airways, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Chicony Electronics, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

A month ago 8 Asian sectors exhibited reviving EPS est; now 16 do. CN, India, Thailand declining, KR, TW, SGP, Phils rising. KR & TW Tech &...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

​Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

​TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

A month ago 8 Asian sectors exhibited reviving EPS est; now 16 do. CN, India, Thailand declining, KR, TW, SGP, Phils rising. KR & TW Tech &...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Intel Is Shrinking (Headcount), Declining (Market Share), but Weakness Can Be a Strength

​Intel faces layoffs and revenue challenges, losing market share in PC and server sectors. However, Intel's lack of AI/GPU roadmap may lead to...

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Intel faces layoffs and revenue challenges, losing market share in PC and server sectors. However, Intel's lack of AI/GPU roadmap may lead to...