Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m. </li>
<li>Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand. </li>
<li>Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m. 
Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand. 
Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26. 


Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

<ul>
<li>2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. </li>
<li>In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. </li>
<li>Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. 
In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. 
Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 OSAT revenue is expected to grow 9–11% QoQ, with GM up 1.4–1.8%; EMS revenue is expected to decline 10% YoY with a 1.0% YoY drop in OPM.</li>
<li>1H saw some pull-in and shift orders plus seasonal growth, but nothing is certain, including tariff and ASEH investing in US....</li>
<li>Automotive remains conservative; high-end demand is stronger. Inventory correction continues for low-end products like MCUs. Overall automotive segment is expected to grow YoY.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 OSAT revenue is expected to grow 9–11% QoQ, with GM up 1.4–1.8%; EMS revenue is expected to decline 10% YoY with a 1.0% YoY drop in OPM.
1H saw some pull-in and shift orders plus seasonal growth, but nothing is certain, including tariff and ASEH investing in US....
Automotive remains conservative; high-end demand is stronger. Inventory correction continues for low-end products like MCUs. Overall automotive segment is expected to grow YoY.


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Slight Upside in 2Q25; Uncertainty Expected in 2H Due to Tariffs.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.</li>
<li>Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.  </li>
<li>UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.</li>
</ul>


Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.
Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.  
UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

Apple's 2Q25 earnings show modest revenue growth. Supply chain reshuffle for US sales will impact margins. Stock remains expensive, steady...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Slight Upside in 2Q25; Uncertainty Expected in 2H Due to Tariffs.

2Q25 OSAT revenue to grow 9-11% QoQ, EMS revenue to decline 10% YoY. Automotive segment remains conservative, high-end demand strong, inventory...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus

UMC sees record low ownership levels as major EM funds exit the stock, leaving few investors with a meaningful stake. Sentiment has never been lower.

Steven Holden

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Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

​Apple's 2Q25 earnings show modest revenue growth. Supply chain reshuffle for US sales will impact margins. Stock remains expensive, steady...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

​MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

Patrick Liao

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): Slight Upside in 2Q25; Uncertainty Expected in 2H Due to Tariffs.

​2Q25 OSAT revenue to grow 9-11% QoQ, EMS revenue to decline 10% YoY. Automotive segment remains conservative, high-end demand strong, inventory...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus

UMC sees record low ownership levels as major EM funds exit the stock, leaving few investors with a meaningful stake. Sentiment has never been lower.

Steven Holden

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Apple's 2Q25 earnings show modest revenue growth. Supply chain reshuffle for US sales will impact margins. Stock remains expensive, steady...

MediaTek projects steady revenue and margin for 2Q25, with flat mobile sales but growth in smart edge and power ICs, while remaining optimistic...

2Q25 OSAT revenue to grow 9-11% QoQ, EMS revenue to decline 10% YoY. Automotive segment remains conservative, high-end demand strong, inventory...