Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> logged record quarterly profits, but some tactical considerations stemming from our WEEKLY model analysis suggest the stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>Both the Time Model and the Price Model are indicating the stock does not have much room to go higher before a possible pullback, maybe 1-2 more weeks, target 1143.</li>
<li>The pullback will be an opportunity to buy at slightly discounted prices, rather than pile in at the highest possible price. The long-term outlook is bullish, buy-the dip. </li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) logged record quarterly profits, but some tactical considerations stemming from our WEEKLY model analysis suggest the stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.
Both the Time Model and the Price Model are indicating the stock does not have much room to go higher before a possible pullback, maybe 1-2 more weeks, target 1143.
The pullback will be an opportunity to buy at slightly discounted prices, rather than pile in at the highest possible price. The long-term outlook is bullish, buy-the dip. 


TSMC (2330.TT) Posted Record Profits, But Our Model Flashes "OVERBOUGHT": Should You Wait to Invest?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY</li>
<li>TSMC's Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment</li>
<li>Long-Term Gross Margins -- Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a "New Normal"?</li>
</ul>


TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
TSMC's Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
Long-Term Gross Margins -- Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a "New Normal"?


TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan</li>
<li>TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook &amp; Q125 Look Ahead </li>
<li>Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook &amp; Q125 Look Ahead 
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>China's semiconductor industry faces devastation with 10,000 companies going bankrupt and hiring coming to a halt.</li><li>Biden shifts chip strategy favoring TSMC over Intel as his term nears end, signaling a change in approach.</li><li>Advancements in technology may soon make 'one robot per household' a reality, with AI chip export ban discussions ongoing.</li></ul>

China's semiconductor industry faces devastation with 10,000 companies going bankrupt and hiring coming to a halt.Biden shifts chip strategy favoring TSMC over Intel as his term nears end, signaling a change in approach.Advancements in technology may soon make 'one robot per household' a reality, with AI chip export ban discussions ongoing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China's semiconductor bankruptcies mount.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.  </li>
<li>For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.  </li>
<li>Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology. </li>
</ul>


There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.  
For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.  
Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT) Posted Record Profits, But Our Model Flashes "OVERBOUGHT": Should You Wait to Invest?

Taiwan Semiconductor reports record profits, but our models indicate the stock (TSMC, 2330.TT) is short-term OVERBOUGHT. We present a tactical...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

TSMC results to be released today, with reports that its Arizona production of 4nm chips is matching Taiwan's yield. Will Japan's Rapidus threaten...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China's semiconductor bankruptcies mount.

China's semiconductor industry struggles as companies go bankrupt, Biden leans towards TSMC over Intel, robots in every home could be a reality,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say.

Joining an advanced semi manufacturing camp could be a lucrative opportunity with fewer competitors, as Rapidus works on licensing IBM's 2nm GAA...

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC (2330.TT) Posted Record Profits, But Our Model Flashes "OVERBOUGHT": Should You Wait to Invest?

​Taiwan Semiconductor reports record profits, but our models indicate the stock (TSMC, 2330.TT) is short-term OVERBOUGHT. We present a tactical...

Nico Rosti

TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth

​TSMC's strong 4Q24 performance and capex guidance suggest a positive outlook for the industry. We delve into key factors signaling why TSMC's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

​TSMC results to be released today, with reports that its Arizona production of 4nm chips is matching Taiwan's yield. Will Japan's Rapidus threaten...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Jan-2025): China's semiconductor bankruptcies mount.

China's semiconductor industry struggles as companies go bankrupt, Biden leans towards TSMC over Intel, robots in every home could be a reality,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say.

​Joining an advanced semi manufacturing camp could be a lucrative opportunity with fewer competitors, as Rapidus works on licensing IBM's 2nm GAA...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor reports record profits, but our models indicate the stock (TSMC, 2330.TT) is short-term OVERBOUGHT. We present a tactical...

TSMC's strong 4Q24 performance and capex guidance suggest a positive outlook for the industry. We delve into key factors signaling why TSMC's...

TSMC results to be released today, with reports that its Arizona production of 4nm chips is matching Taiwan's yield. Will Japan's Rapidus threaten...

Joining an advanced semi manufacturing camp could be a lucrative opportunity with fewer competitors, as Rapidus works on licensing IBM's 2nm GAA...