Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its industry-leading 3-nanometer technology.</li><li>The gross margin, however decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 53% primarily due to margin dilution from 3-nanometer technology.</li><li>The operating margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.6%, slightly ahead of the company's guidance.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its industry-leading 3-nanometer technology.The gross margin, however decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 53% primarily due to margin dilution from 3-nanometer technology.The operating margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.6%, slightly ahead of the company's guidance.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! - Key Growth Catalysts

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that the guidance upper limit for 1Q24F results may be reached.  </li>
<li>The outlook is expected to see approximately a 10% QoQ increase in 2Q24F.  </li>
<li>The recent stock market performance may reflect enthusiasm for Vanguard, despite temporary disregard for the name.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that the guidance upper limit for 1Q24F results may be reached.  
The outlook is expected to see approximately a 10% QoQ increase in 2Q24F.  
The recent stock market performance may reflect enthusiasm for Vanguard, despite temporary disregard for the name.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. </li>
<li>Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.</li>
<li>Astera Labs' major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. 
Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.
Astera Labs' major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. </li>
<li>PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus </li>
</ul>


Massive TSMC Rises 13.8% in Just a Week; Mediatek a Top 10 Gainer for Second Week in a Row
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule. 
PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell &amp; HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! - Key Growth Catalysts

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its...

Baptista Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

Anticipated strong 1Q24F results may hit upper limit, with 10% QoQ increase expected in 2Q24F. Stock market reflects enthusiasm for Vanguard...

Patrick Liao

Astera Labs IPO Preview

Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share.

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! - Key Growth Catalysts

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)'s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its...

Baptista Research

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

​Anticipated strong 1Q24F results may hit upper limit, with 10% QoQ increase expected in 2Q24F. Stock market reflects enthusiasm for Vanguard...

Patrick Liao

Astera Labs IPO Preview

Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share.

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Surge Leads Taiwan Stocks Higher; Advanced Chip Packaging in Focus

​TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Anticipated strong 1Q24F results may hit upper limit, with 10% QoQ increase expected in 2Q24F. Stock market reflects enthusiasm for Vanguard...

TSMC and Mediatek see significant stock gains, with TSMC ramping advanced packaging capacity and the iPhone 16 is on schedule. Dell and HPQ...