Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.</li>
<li>Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.</li>
</ul>


China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.
Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.


Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> 2Q25 growth likely reaches ~39% YoY with upside risk if 4Q25 outperforms.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> remains the anchor customer driving N2 ramp in 2026.</li>
<li>Since 2nm technology will be widely adopted starting in 2026, revenue growth is projected to be around 25% YoY.  </li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) 2Q25 growth likely reaches ~39% YoY with upside risk if 4Q25 outperforms.  

Apple (AAPL US) remains the anchor customer driving N2 ramp in 2026.
Since 2nm technology will be widely adopted starting in 2026, revenue growth is projected to be around 25% YoY.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25/2025 Outlook Could Outperform; 2nm Is Likely to Largest Adopted in 2026

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Micron Earnings Call Analysis: AI Memory Tailwinds Getting Stronger as Servers, Smartphone, PC Demand Converge</li>
<li>MediaTek Sharpens Flagship Push, Aiming for 40% Global Market Share... Also, Exploring U.S. Production Set Up</li>
<li>KYEC (2449.TT): The Recent Upward Momentum in the Share Price Has Been Driven by Strong Fundamentals </li>
</ul>


Micron Earnings Call Analysis: AI Memory Tailwinds Getting Stronger as Servers, Smartphone, PC Demand Converge
MediaTek Sharpens Flagship Push, Aiming for 40% Global Market Share... Also, Exploring U.S. Production Set Up
KYEC (2449.TT): The Recent Upward Momentum in the Share Price Has Been Driven by Strong Fundamentals 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Eyes US Manufacturing, 40% Global Mkt Share; Micron Earnings Take-Aways

<ul>
<li>This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs</li>
<li>This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services</li>
<li>We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  </li>
</ul>


This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  


DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

<ul>
<li>The Semiconductor industry associations report re-accelerating Semi sales, and increase 2024-25 forecasts. This is due to higher AI / Accelerators, HBM Memory but the rest of the market remains sluggish</li>
<li>TSMC remains on its high growth plateau at 34% YoY, driven by AI and 3nm. UMC remains on a sluggish recovery at 7% YoY.</li>
<li>AMD, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC: stocks are not expensive on PE relative to earnings growth. Non-Consensus: we think AMD and SK Hynix are worth a serious look.</li>
</ul>


The Semiconductor industry associations report re-accelerating Semi sales, and increase 2024-25 forecasts. This is due to higher AI / Accelerators, HBM Memory but the rest of the market remains sluggish
TSMC remains on its high growth plateau at 34% YoY, driven by AI and 3nm. UMC remains on a sluggish recovery at 7% YoY.
AMD, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC: stocks are not expensive on PE relative to earnings growth. Non-Consensus: we think AMD and SK Hynix are worth a serious look.


Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating:  AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25/2025 Outlook Could Outperform; 2nm Is Likely to Largest Adopted in 2026

TSMC's 2Q25 growth expected at 39% YoY, potential upside if 4Q25 outperforms. Apple driving N2 ramp in 2026, revenue growth projected at 25% YoY...

Patrick Liao

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating: AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

Semiconductor sales are re-accelerating due to AI Accelerators and related HBM memory. AMD and SK Hynix stocks are out of favor and worth...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

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P/E

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Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

​Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25/2025 Outlook Could Outperform; 2nm Is Likely to Largest Adopted in 2026

​TSMC's 2Q25 growth expected at 39% YoY, potential upside if 4Q25 outperforms. Apple driving N2 ramp in 2026, revenue growth projected at 25% YoY...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Eyes US Manufacturing, 40% Global Mkt Share; Micron Earnings Take-Aways

​Micron sees AI memory demand rising, MediaTek targets 40% market share, KYEC's stock surge driven by strong fundamentals.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

​Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating: AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

​Semiconductor sales are re-accelerating due to AI Accelerators and related HBM memory. AMD and SK Hynix stocks are out of favor and worth...

Nicolas Baratte

Huawei's advancement in AI semiconductor technology was hindered by losing access to TSMC, impacting the progress of their AI processor Ascend...

TSMC's 2Q25 growth expected at 39% YoY, potential upside if 4Q25 outperforms. Apple driving N2 ramp in 2026, revenue growth projected at 25% YoY...

Micron sees AI memory demand rising, MediaTek targets 40% market share, KYEC's stock surge driven by strong fundamentals.

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Semiconductor sales are re-accelerating due to AI Accelerators and related HBM memory. AMD and SK Hynix stocks are out of favor and worth...