Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $<span style="color: #24a9a7;">ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136</span>
</li>
<li>We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.</li>
</ul>


A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136

We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.


Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's public sector units are experiencing significant technological advancements, particularly in AI chip performance through innovative methods like hybrid bonding and e-beam metrology.</li>
<li>The relocation of Semicon West has resulted in a notable increase in attendance, showcasing the growing interest and investment in the US semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>Beijing is intensifying its tech regulations, particularly concerning rare earth materials, while a Taiwanese drone manufacturer seeks to disrupt DJI's market position with a substantial military contract.</li>
</ul>


China's public sector units are experiencing significant technological advancements, particularly in AI chip performance through innovative methods like hybrid bonding and e-beam metrology.
The relocation of Semicon West has resulted in a notable increase in attendance, showcasing the growing interest and investment in the US semiconductor industry.
Beijing is intensifying its tech regulations, particularly concerning rare earth materials, while a Taiwanese drone manufacturer seeks to disrupt DJI's market position with a substantial military contract.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-Oct-2025): China's Top 3 PSU Players: Tech and Deployment

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost</li>
<li>Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. </li>
<li>HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning </li>
</ul>


As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost
Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. 
HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030</li>
<li>For now, "sovereign" AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for "sovereign" AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars</li>
<li>In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let's see... </li>
</ul>


If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030
For now, "sovereign" AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for "sovereign" AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars
In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let's see... 


Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-Oct-2025): China's Top 3 PSU Players: Tech and Deployment

Key tech developments in China include AI chip advancements by Applied Materials, rising US chip investments, OpenAI's popular Sora app, stricter...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little?...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-Oct-2025): China's Top 3 PSU Players: Tech and Deployment

Key tech developments in China include AI chip advancements by Applied Materials, rising US chip investments, OpenAI's popular Sora app, stricter...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

​Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little?...

William Keating

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.