CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a> announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.</li>
<li>The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.</li>
<li>Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 


Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>China and India’s thermal coal import has remained weak in 10M25, down 7-8% yoy, despite ST stabilization from seasonal restocking.</li><li>Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.</li><li>We maintain Neutral rating given unexciting LT outlook; ST price seasonal strength should be sustained in the upcoming winter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China and India’s thermal coal import has remained weak in 10M25, down 7-8% yoy, despite ST stabilization from seasonal restocking.Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.We maintain Neutral rating given unexciting LT outlook; ST price seasonal strength should be sustained in the upcoming winter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Demand Outlook Remains Soft, Though Seasonal Price Strength Still in Play (NEUTRAL)

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.</li>
<li>The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.</li>
<li>Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.</li>
</ul>


Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.


Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

<ul><li>Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.</li><li>While current prices already near cost support levels, ST price rebound may be capped by weak imports as restocking only starts by end of 3Q.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the sector with preferences for UNTR&gt; ADRO&gt; AADI&gt; ITMG&gt; PTBA</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.While current prices already near cost support levels, ST price rebound may be capped by weak imports as restocking only starts by end of 3Q.We maintain a Neutral rating on the sector with preferences for UNTR&gt; ADRO&gt; AADI&gt; ITMG&gt; PTBAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

Indonesia

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

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Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) just announced another buyback. This should have some decent impact, and the stock is a bit cheap to similar-sized peers.

Travis Lundy

Coal: Demand Outlook Remains Soft, Though Seasonal Price Strength Still in Play (NEUTRAL)

Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

Bayan Resources reports strong H1 results but faces challenge in meeting ambitious H2 targets, trading at a premium compared to Indonesian coal...

Rahul Jain

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) just announced another buyback. This should have some decent impact, and the stock is a bit cheap to similar-sized peers.

Travis Lundy

Coal: Demand Outlook Remains Soft, Though Seasonal Price Strength Still in Play (NEUTRAL)

Weak demand is partly balanced by constrained Indonesia’s production; government’s plan to cap 2026 production should be viewed positively.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

​Bayan Resources reports strong H1 results but faces challenge in meeting ambitious H2 targets, trading at a premium compared to Indonesian coal...

Rahul Jain

Coal: Coal Price Downside May Be Limited, but Weak Demand May Cap ST Rebound (NEUTRAL)

Average coal prices YTD are below our expectations, driven by weak imports amid strong domestic production in China and India.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bayan Resources reports strong H1 results but faces challenge in meeting ambitious H2 targets, trading at a premium compared to Indonesian coal...