Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral policy stance. But (in concert with MoF), a more conducive climate was created for foreign inflows into India's debt markets.  </li>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q4/FY26 with a current account surplus (0.7% of GDP). Our forecast for core CPI inflation is 4.2%, headline 4.8%, and no rate hikes in FY27.</li>
<li>With services (52% of the economy) growing 9%+, we expect real GDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, and strong net FDI and FPI inflows to bolster INR. Bullish. </li>
</ul>


RBI kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral policy stance. But (in concert with MoF), a more conducive climate was created for foreign inflows into India's debt markets.  
Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q4/FY26 with a current account surplus (0.7% of GDP). Our forecast for core CPI inflation is 4.2%, headline 4.8%, and no rate hikes in FY27.
With services (52% of the economy) growing 9%+, we expect real GDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, and strong net FDI and FPI inflows to bolster INR. Bullish. 


India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. </li>
<li>A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. </li>
<li>However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.</li>
</ul>


The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. 
A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. 
However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.


India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>India’s steel demand is pulling ore inward, shrinking exports, while heavy reliance on China leaves external demand increasingly fragile.</li>
<li>India’s iron ore imports are surging on high-grade shortages, exposing JSW Steel to global price risks and rising input cost pressures. </li>
<li>Tata Steel’s record volumes, green steel push, and strategic capex signal stronger growth visibility with improving sustainability-led competitive advantage ahead. </li>
</ul>


India’s steel demand is pulling ore inward, shrinking exports, while heavy reliance on China leaves external demand increasingly fragile.
India’s iron ore imports are surging on high-grade shortages, exposing JSW Steel to global price risks and rising input cost pressures. 
Tata Steel’s record volumes, green steel push, and strategic capex signal stronger growth visibility with improving sustainability-led competitive advantage ahead. 


India’s Steel Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook: Is Tata Steel Poised for the Next Growth Phase?

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel mills are ramping up production as construction activity improves, while potential weather disruptions at Port Hedland threaten near-term iron ore supply.</li>
<li>A 10-cent rise in diesel prices could add about USD 70 Mn to Fortescue’s costs and roughly USD 500m across major iron ore producers.</li>
<li>Iron ore momentum remains positive with MACD above the signal line, but RSI nearing overbought and slowing upside momentum signal near-term consolidation risk.</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel mills are ramping up production as construction activity improves, while potential weather disruptions at Port Hedland threaten near-term iron ore supply.
A 10-cent rise in diesel prices could add about USD 70 Mn to Fortescue’s costs and roughly USD 500m across major iron ore producers.
Iron ore momentum remains positive with MACD above the signal line, but RSI nearing overbought and slowing upside momentum signal near-term consolidation risk.


Iron Ore: Demand Recovery Builds, but Contract Negotiations Could Reintroduce Supply Risk

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In January FIIs sold US$3.5 bn Asia-6 equities and till 10th February they have sold US$5.7bn. February marks the fourth month in succession that the FIIs are selling Asia.</li>
<li>In February MTD, FIIs have sold US$6.5bn Korean equities and US$888m Taiwanese. They bought US$1.7bn India and US$23m Philippines. Thailand was also bought (US$139m in January), Indonesia sold heavily (US$588m).</li>
<li>FII buying should restart in Korea, Taiwan soon. Flows into India have bounced back but it's too early to predict a sustainable reversal. Philippines, Thailand should continue to see inflows.</li>
</ul>


In January FIIs sold US$3.5 bn Asia-6 equities and till 10th February they have sold US$5.7bn. February marks the fourth month in succession that the FIIs are selling Asia.
In February MTD, FIIs have sold US$6.5bn Korean equities and US$888m Taiwanese. They bought US$1.7bn India and US$23m Philippines. Thailand was also bought (US$139m in January), Indonesia sold heavily (US$588m).
FII buying should restart in Korea, Taiwan soon. Flows into India have bounced back but it's too early to predict a sustainable reversal. Philippines, Thailand should continue to see inflows.


Asian Equities: Foreigners Continue to Sell Asia but Market Rotation Setting In

India

Tata Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company that manufactures and distributes a wide range of steel products, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, tubes, and wire rods. The company serves diverse sectors such as automotive, construction, engineering, and consumer goods. Tata Steel is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on August 26, 1907.

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Tata Steel (TATA IN)

India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

India’s Steel Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook: Is Tata Steel Poised for the Next Growth Phase?

India’s steel boom is locking in iron ore at home, squeezing exports and amplifying China risk, while Tata Steel looks built for this shift.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore: Demand Recovery Builds, but Contract Negotiations Could Reintroduce Supply Risk

Iron ore bulls regain footing as Chinese demand improves, but rising inventories, cooling momentum, and supply negotiations threaten to cap further...

Mint Finance

Asian Equities: Foreigners Continue to Sell Asia but Market Rotation Setting In

As we approach the end of Feb, Taiwan has turned around. From selling in the first couple of weeks, FIIs have now bought $4.3bn Taiwan equities....

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

​RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

​Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

India’s Steel Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook: Is Tata Steel Poised for the Next Growth Phase?

India’s steel boom is locking in iron ore at home, squeezing exports and amplifying China risk, while Tata Steel looks built for this shift.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore: Demand Recovery Builds, but Contract Negotiations Could Reintroduce Supply Risk

Iron ore bulls regain footing as Chinese demand improves, but rising inventories, cooling momentum, and supply negotiations threaten to cap further...

Mint Finance

Asian Equities: Foreigners Continue to Sell Asia but Market Rotation Setting In

As we approach the end of Feb, Taiwan has turned around. From selling in the first couple of weeks, FIIs have now bought $4.3bn Taiwan equities....

Manishi Raychaudhuri

RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...