Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After long-drawn-out underperformance, Indian equities are looking interesting again. Cyclically improving growth, stabilizing currency on the back of several trade deals, policy focus on infrastructure and advanced manufacturing are converging.</li>
<li>High frequency data reveals growth acceleration in consumer discretionary, construction goods, automobiles, electrical goods, base metals. Some of these sectors are reasonably valued in relation to forecast growth and ROE.</li>
<li>We highlight 17 stocks across a range of sectors that have robustly improving earnings estimates, strong growth forecasts, healthy balance sheets, reasonable growth-adjusted valuations. 8 of them are large caps.</li>
</ul>


After long-drawn-out underperformance, Indian equities are looking interesting again. Cyclically improving growth, stabilizing currency on the back of several trade deals, policy focus on infrastructure and advanced manufacturing are converging.
High frequency data reveals growth acceleration in consumer discretionary, construction goods, automobiles, electrical goods, base metals. Some of these sectors are reasonably valued in relation to forecast growth and ROE.
We highlight 17 stocks across a range of sectors that have robustly improving earnings estimates, strong growth forecasts, healthy balance sheets, reasonable growth-adjusted valuations. 8 of them are large caps.


Asian Equities: India - Light at the End of the Tunnel

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>While domestic demand growth moderated, India turned net exporter in Q3FY26: In Q3FY26, finished steel consumption moderated slightly to 6.5% YoY, compared with ~8.4% in H1FY26</li><li>October and November witnessed lower growth of ~4.5% YoY each, but demand firmed up in December 2025 to ~10%, as per the Ministry of Steel</li><li>Consumption remained flattish on a QoQ basis</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While domestic demand growth moderated, India turned net exporter in Q3FY26: In Q3FY26, finished steel consumption moderated slightly to 6.5% YoY, compared with ~8.4% in H1FY26October and November witnessed lower growth of ~4.5% YoY each, but demand firmed up in December 2025 to ~10%, as per the Ministry of SteelConsumption remained flattish on a QoQ basisContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Robust volume growth, prices firming up

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In Q3FY26, we expect moderation in absolute EBITDA and margins across steel and Aluminium names under our coverage.</li><li>For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to decline QoQ, mainly led by lower steel sales price realisations and higher coking coal consumption costs, partly offset by higher sales volumes.</li><li>Average domestic HRC prices in Q3FY26 decreased by 1.5%/5% YoY/QoQ post extended monsoon, due to uncertainty over the imposition of final safeguard duty, and as steel production remained adequate to meet steel consumption. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q3FY26, we expect moderation in absolute EBITDA and margins across steel and Aluminium names under our coverage.For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to decline QoQ, mainly led by lower steel sales price realisations and higher coking coal consumption costs, partly offset by higher sales volumes.Average domestic HRC prices in Q3FY26 decreased by 1.5%/5% YoY/QoQ post extended monsoon, due to uncertainty over the imposition of final safeguard duty, and as steel production remained adequate to meet steel consumption. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q3FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.</li>
<li>This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.</li>
<li>With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.</li>
</ul>


On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.
This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.
With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.


Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) steel prices slumped to five-year lows in October 2025 due to rampant dumping, even as government capex accelerates and post-monsoon demand revives.</li>
<li>The immediate policy response imposing Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) is critical, providing a necessary margin shield for domestic producers to execute their aggressive Rs. 1 lakh crore+ capacity expansion plans. 
</li>
<li>India positioned as the only major structural demand story globally, the current price weakness offers a tactical entry point into companies focused on high-quality domestic execution and raw material integration. 
</li>
</ul>


Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) steel prices slumped to five-year lows in October 2025 due to rampant dumping, even as government capex accelerates and post-monsoon demand revives.
The immediate policy response imposing Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) is critical, providing a necessary margin shield for domestic producers to execute their aggressive Rs. 1 lakh crore+ capacity expansion plans. 

India positioned as the only major structural demand story globally, the current price weakness offers a tactical entry point into companies focused on high-quality domestic execution and raw material integration. 



From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

India

Tata Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company that manufactures and distributes a wide range of steel products, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, tubes, and wire rods. The company serves diverse sectors such as automotive, construction, engineering, and consumer goods. Tata Steel is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on August 26, 1907.

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Tata Steel (TATA IN)

Asian Equities: India - Light at the End of the Tunnel

Indian equities are rebounding with improving growth, stabilizing INR & policy focus on infra & mfg. Grth acceleration in cons durables, autos,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Metals (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Robust volume growth, prices firming up

While domestic demand growth moderated, India turned net exporter in Q3FY26: In Q3FY26, finished steel consumption moderated slightly to 6.5% YoY,...

HDFC Securities

Q3FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to decline QoQ, mainly led by lower steel sales price...

Axis Direct

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Asian Equities: India - Light at the End of the Tunnel

​Indian equities are rebounding with improving growth, stabilizing INR & policy focus on infra & mfg. Grth acceleration in cons durables, autos,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Metals (Q3FY26 Results Preview): Robust volume growth, prices firming up

While domestic demand growth moderated, India turned net exporter in Q3FY26: In Q3FY26, finished steel consumption moderated slightly to 6.5% YoY,...

HDFC Securities

Q3FY26 Earnings Preview - Metals and Mining

For the Steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect EBITDA to decline QoQ, mainly led by lower steel sales price...

Axis Direct

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

​Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

​Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Indian equities are rebounding with improving growth, stabilizing INR & policy focus on infra & mfg. Grth acceleration in cons durables, autos,...

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...