Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral policy stance. But (in concert with MoF), a more conducive climate was created for foreign inflows into India's debt markets.  </li>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q4/FY26 with a current account surplus (0.7% of GDP). Our forecast for core CPI inflation is 4.2%, headline 4.8%, and no rate hikes in FY27.</li>
<li>With services (52% of the economy) growing 9%+, we expect real GDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, and strong net FDI and FPI inflows to bolster INR. Bullish. </li>
</ul>


RBI kept the policy rate unchanged and retained a neutral policy stance. But (in concert with MoF), a more conducive climate was created for foreign inflows into India's debt markets.  
Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q4/FY26 with a current account surplus (0.7% of GDP). Our forecast for core CPI inflation is 4.2%, headline 4.8%, and no rate hikes in FY27.
With services (52% of the economy) growing 9%+, we expect real GDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, and strong net FDI and FPI inflows to bolster INR. Bullish. 


India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global Risk Deflation: The prospect of geopolitical de-escalation has acted as a powerful macro catalyst.</li><li>The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky assets.</li><li>Stock Picker’s Market: The headline stock market indices are trading sideways without a clear direction. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Risk Deflation: The prospect of geopolitical de-escalation has acted as a powerful macro catalyst.The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky assets.Stock Picker’s Market: The headline stock market indices are trading sideways without a clear direction. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. </li>
<li>A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. </li>
<li>However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.</li>
</ul>


The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. 
A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. 
However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.


India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Maintain positive outlook for the Indian steel sector: Continued healthy steel demand should support absorption of recent price increases, helping expand gross margins even after factoring in higher coking coal and iron ore costs.</li><li>We remain positive on the sector and have marginally reduced EBITDA estimates to reflect lower than expected margin expansion in Q4FY26.</li><li>We retain BUY ratings on Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Jindal Steel, and ADD ratings on APAT and SAIL.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain positive outlook for the Indian steel sector: Continued healthy steel demand should support absorption of recent price increases, helping expand gross margins even after factoring in higher coking coal and iron ore costs.We remain positive on the sector and have marginally reduced EBITDA estimates to reflect lower than expected margin expansion in Q4FY26.We retain BUY ratings on Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Jindal Steel, and ADD ratings on APAT and SAIL.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals (Q4FY26 Results Preview): Steel price recovery to drive margin uptick

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>India’s steel demand is pulling ore inward, shrinking exports, while heavy reliance on China leaves external demand increasingly fragile.</li>
<li>India’s iron ore imports are surging on high-grade shortages, exposing JSW Steel to global price risks and rising input cost pressures. </li>
<li>Tata Steel’s record volumes, green steel push, and strategic capex signal stronger growth visibility with improving sustainability-led competitive advantage ahead. </li>
</ul>


India’s steel demand is pulling ore inward, shrinking exports, while heavy reliance on China leaves external demand increasingly fragile.
India’s iron ore imports are surging on high-grade shortages, exposing JSW Steel to global price risks and rising input cost pressures. 
Tata Steel’s record volumes, green steel push, and strategic capex signal stronger growth visibility with improving sustainability-led competitive advantage ahead. 


India’s Steel Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook: Is Tata Steel Poised for the Next Growth Phase?

India

Tata Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company that manufactures and distributes a wide range of steel products, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, tubes, and wire rods. The company serves diverse sectors such as automotive, construction, engineering, and consumer goods. Tata Steel is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on August 26, 1907.

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Tata Steel (TATA IN)

India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monthly Quant Report June 2026

The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky...

Axis Direct

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Metals (Q4FY26 Results Preview): Steel price recovery to drive margin uptick

We remain positive on the sector and have marginally reduced EBITDA estimates to reflect lower than expected margin expansion in Q4FY26.

HDFC Securities

India’s Steel Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook: Is Tata Steel Poised for the Next Growth Phase?

India’s steel boom is locking in iron ore at home, squeezing exports and amplifying China risk, while Tata Steel looks built for this shift.

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: No Rate Hike in FY27, as Growth Slows a Tad and CAD Widens to 1% of GDP

​RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monthly Quant Report June 2026

The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky...

Axis Direct

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

​Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Metals (Q4FY26 Results Preview): Steel price recovery to drive margin uptick

We remain positive on the sector and have marginally reduced EBITDA estimates to reflect lower than expected margin expansion in Q4FY26.

HDFC Securities

India’s Steel Surge Is Rewriting the Playbook: Is Tata Steel Poised for the Next Growth Phase?

India’s steel boom is locking in iron ore at home, squeezing exports and amplifying China risk, while Tata Steel looks built for this shift.

Mint Finance

RBI maintains policy rate, focuses on attracting foreign inflows to debt markets. With Services growing 9%, RGDP to grow 7.3% in FY27, as...

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...