Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global AI smart glasses shipment jumped 588% YoY to 2.34mn in 2024, thanks to strong sales of Ray Ban Meta in 4Q24 (1.36mn; +183% QoQ).</li><li>Looking into 2025, AI smart glasses market is set to continue strong momentum with 135% YoY growth to 5.5mn units, backed by strong product pipeline from Meta/Xiaomi /Bytedance/Ray Neo/Rokid, based on Wellsenn XR.</li><li>As more players expand into AI smart glass products, we expect BOM cost will decline gradually and more killer apps in AI glasses to become prevalent in the next few years. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Global AI smart glasses shipment jumped 588% YoY to 2.34mn in 2024, thanks to strong sales of Ray Ban Meta in 4Q24 (1.36mn; +183% QoQ).Looking into 2025, AI smart glasses market is set to continue strong momentum with 135% YoY growth to 5.5mn units, backed by strong product pipeline from Meta/Xiaomi /Bytedance/Ray Neo/Rokid, based on Wellsenn XR.As more players expand into AI smart glass products, we expect BOM cost will decline gradually and more killer apps in AI glasses to become prevalent in the next few years. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Global AI Smart Glasses Market Set to Kick off in 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 23rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), China Mobile (941 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 23rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), China Mobile (941 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 23rd): Tencent, China Mobile

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corporation, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corporation, Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 26th): Tencent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Meituan

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CCB (939 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), Tencent (700 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB (939 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), Tencent (700 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 28th): CCB, ICBC, Tencent

Hong Kong

TCL Multimedia Technology Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures television sets, trades television related components, and manufactures audio visual products.  The Company also manufactures personal computers and peripheral products. In addition, TCL Intenational operates information technology and other business.

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Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Technology - Global AI Smart Glasses Market Set to Kick off in 2025

Global AI smart glasses shipment jumped 588% YoY to 2.34mn in 2024, thanks to strong sales of Ray Ban Meta in 4Q24 (1.36mn; +183% QoQ).

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 23rd): Tencent, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), China Mobile (941 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 26th): Tencent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Meituan

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 28th): CCB, ICBC, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CCB (939 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), Tencent (700 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)