Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Yellen Put is still alive while Powell is tied to his (premature) December pivot.</li><li>We find it likely that volatility will pick up as markets are increasingly confused about the trajectory.</li><li>No bets, only hedges vs the US remains our conviction mantra–  We remain long the USD, implicitly betting on higher USD rates in the 5yr sector (versus peers) and long select commodities thriving in a cyclical rebound,</li></ul>

The Yellen Put is still alive while Powell is tied to his (premature) December pivot.We find it likely that volatility will pick up as markets are increasingly confused about the trajectory.No bets, only hedges vs the US remains our conviction mantra–  We remain long the USD, implicitly betting on higher USD rates in the 5yr sector (versus peers) and long select commodities thriving in a cyclical rebound,

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2.</li><li>The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1.</li><li>While this is a substantial amount, it’s $55 billion less than the October estimate for Q1 ($816 billion).</li></ul>

Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2.The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1.While this is a substantial amount, it’s $55 billion less than the October estimate for Q1 ($816 billion).

US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to Decide the QT Tapering Timing Tomorrow

<ul><li>As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.</li><li>The reason is that the existing regime we were left with late last year with liquidity stacking up and growth fueled by Bidenomics remains fairly accommodative for risk assets while the debt issuance the treasury is burdened with these days is keeping a floor on the yields.</li><li>What we have been pondering of late is whether the enduring inflation risk we’ve flagged will be accompanied by a corresponding persistence in growth.</li></ul>

As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.The reason is that the existing regime we were left with late last year with liquidity stacking up and growth fueled by Bidenomics remains fairly accommodative for risk assets while the debt issuance the treasury is burdened with these days is keeping a floor on the yields.What we have been pondering of late is whether the enduring inflation risk we’ve flagged will be accompanied by a corresponding persistence in growth.

Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

United States

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of The Technology Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap technology stocks. Its largest investment allocation is in the United States. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)

Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster

Main Takeaways: – The Yellen Put is still alive while Powell is tied to his (premature) December pivot– We find it likely that volatility will...

Steno Research

US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to Decide the QT Tapering Timing Tomorrow

Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2. The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1. While this is...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit

As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.The reason is that the existing regime...

Steno Research

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

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