Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

<p>Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, <em>not</em> deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.</p>

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. </li>
<li>These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. </li>
<li>We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. 
These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. 
We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.</li>
<li>Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.</li>
<li>Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.</li>
</ul>


Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.
Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.
Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.


Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

​Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.