Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.</li>
<li>Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.</li>
<li>The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility </li>
</ul>


Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.
Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.
The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility 


<ul>
<li>A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.</li>
<li>The force majeure in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> mine will take out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">700,000 tons</a> of annualized production in the foreseeable future (&gt;2.5% of global copper production).</li>
<li>Copper players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> would be beneficiaries, while <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> could be significantly affected.</li>
</ul>


A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.
The force majeure in the Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) mine will take out 700,000 tons of annualized production in the foreseeable future (&gt;2.5% of global copper production).
Copper players like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), and Teck Resources (TECK US) would be beneficiaries, while Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) could be significantly affected.


Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Anglo Tech merger is a massive deal with significant potential synergies and benefits for both companies, particularly in copper production</li><li>The deal is well structured with operational synergies and nil premium merger, making it difficult for potential interlopers to compete</li><li>Anglo has shown remarkable turnaround from being undervalued and criticized to being a key player in the industry, with significant government approvals and listing requirements in place for the deal to be successful</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Anglo Tech merger is a massive deal with significant potential synergies and benefits for both companies, particularly in copper productionThe deal is well structured with operational synergies and nil premium merger, making it difficult for potential interlopers to competeAnglo has shown remarkable turnaround from being undervalued and criticized to being a key player in the industry, with significant government approvals and listing requirements in place for the deal to be successfulThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Anglo Teck Mega Merger... and a Retail Revolt

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.</li>
<li>The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.</li>
<li>The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.</li>
</ul>


Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.
The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.
The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.


Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK US)

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Anglo–Teck: A Deal Built on Fragility

Glencore's dual role as competitor and gatekeeper in cross-continental deals creates uncertainty and volatility, with deal terms contingent on...

Mint Finance

Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

We expect the Force Majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia of FCX to result in copper prices breaching the $ 5/lb mark and rallying further. We...

Sameer Taneja

Anglo Teck Mega Merger... and a Retail Revolt

Lawyers are rare guests on the show as they discuss Anglo Tech's massive deal, which includes potential synergies in mining operations and special...

Money of Mine

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Anglo–Teck: A Deal Built on Fragility

​Glencore's dual role as competitor and gatekeeper in cross-continental deals creates uncertainty and volatility, with deal terms contingent on...

Mint Finance

Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

We expect the Force Majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia of FCX to result in copper prices breaching the $ 5/lb mark and rallying further. We...

Sameer Taneja

Anglo Teck Mega Merger... and a Retail Revolt

Lawyers are rare guests on the show as they discuss Anglo Tech's massive deal, which includes potential synergies in mining operations and special...

Money of Mine

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

​Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

Glencore's dual role as competitor and gatekeeper in cross-continental deals creates uncertainty and volatility, with deal terms contingent on...

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...