Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. </li>
<li>We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.</li>
<li>We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. 
We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.
We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

First Quantum Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

<ul>
<li>In the countdown to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)</a>, which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.</li>
<li>The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. </li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lundin-mining-lun-cn-cheap-play-on-copper" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168213" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper.</a> </li>
</ul>


In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 


Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

<ul>
<li>Disappointing September/October China lending data with TSF down 9%/24% YoY to 3.7/1.4 trillion RMB Vs. (analysts expectations of 4/1.5 trillion RMB) has led to skepticism about China's recovery story.</li>
<li>Copper prices have dropped below 9000 USD/ton and stayed there despite the fall of exchange inventories. </li>
<li>We like the LT copper story and see long-term benefits for stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Disappointing September/October China lending data with TSF down 9%/24% YoY to 3.7/1.4 trillion RMB Vs. (analysts expectations of 4/1.5 trillion RMB) has led to skepticism about China's recovery story.
Copper prices have dropped below 9000 USD/ton and stayed there despite the fall of exchange inventories. 
We like the LT copper story and see long-term benefits for stocks like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US). 


Copper Tracker 25th November 2024: TSF Disappoints, What Next?

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. </li>
<li>Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. </li>
<li>As long-term bulls, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>; under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  </li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 
As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  


Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Teck Resources (TECK US)

Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

We summarize our estimates for copper demand for FY25. Market participants are increasingly bullish on copper, but China's demand must pick up for...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

The copper market remains range-bound in the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th. How...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 25th November 2024: TSF Disappoints, What Next?

We analyze China lending (TSF), a forward indicator for copper demand. There has been no pick up in lending yet in China, which has resulted in the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

We analyze the impact of China's recent 13% export duty rebate cancellation on copper and the valuations of our favorite copper picks after the...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)