European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Poste has added €0.30/share and waived the 66.67% threshold. The final €1.97 + 0.218-share offer materially reduces completion risk; we raise completion probability to 99%.</li>
<li>At Poste's €26.29 close, revised consideration is worth €7.701 versus TIM at €7.69, leaving just 0.15% gross spread. We would not initiate a hedged arbitrage position.</li>
<li>Existing TIM longs should wait rather than tender by 11 September. The 21–25 September reopening offers the same terms after initial acceptances clarify Poste's ownership and TIM's likely listing outcome.</li>
</ul>


Poste has added €0.30/share and waived the 66.67% threshold. The final €1.97 + 0.218-share offer materially reduces completion risk; we raise completion probability to 99%.
At Poste's €26.29 close, revised consideration is worth €7.701 versus TIM at €7.69, leaving just 0.15% gross spread. We would not initiate a hedged arbitrage position.
Existing TIM longs should wait rather than tender by 11 September. The 21–25 September reopening offers the same terms after initial acceptances clarify Poste's ownership and TIM's likely listing outcome.


Poste/TIM: The €0.30 Sweetener Arrives, but the Spread Doesn't

<ul>
<li>TIM trades 1.0% above Poste's offer while only 3.1% of shares subject to the offer have been tendered, giving shareholders little economic incentive to tender at current prices.</li>
<li>A modest cash sweetener is affordable and recent Italian precedents support the possibility. We raise our probability of improved consideration from 20% to 25%.</li>
<li>Our €7.77 probability-weighted value remains below TIM's €7.804 share price, with 2.5% sweetener upside versus 12.9% break downside. We would not initiate a position.</li>
</ul>


TIM trades 1.0% above Poste's offer while only 3.1% of shares subject to the offer have been tendered, giving shareholders little economic incentive to tender at current prices.
A modest cash sweetener is affordable and recent Italian precedents support the possibility. We raise our probability of improved consideration from 20% to 25%.
Our €7.77 probability-weighted value remains below TIM's €7.804 share price, with 2.5% sweetener upside versus 12.9% break downside. We would not initiate a position.


Poste/TIM: Why Tender When the Market Pays More?

<ul>
<li>TIM has completed its share class unification and secured unanimous Board support, removing the principal execution risks identified in our initiation report and materially increasing transaction certainty.</li>
<li>TIM now trades 1.4% above the implied offer value. Our updated scenario analysis indicates the shares are fully valued, with a probability-weighted value around 1% below the market price.</li>
<li>With execution risk materially reduced but residual optionality already reflected in the share price, we do not believe the current risk/reward is attractive for new investors.</li>
</ul>


TIM has completed its share class unification and secured unanimous Board support, removing the principal execution risks identified in our initiation report and materially increasing transaction certainty.
TIM now trades 1.4% above the implied offer value. Our updated scenario analysis indicates the shares are fully valued, with a probability-weighted value around 1% below the market price.
With execution risk materially reduced but residual optionality already reflected in the share price, we do not believe the current risk/reward is attractive for new investors.


Poste/TIM Update: More Certain, Not More Attractive

<ul>
<li>Italian savings shares (azioni di risparmio) are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to investors who prefer steady returns over company decision-making power.</li>
<li>Ordinary shares command higher prices due to voting rights and control, while preference shares are valued lower. In Italy, control is highly valued, thus a significant premium for ordinary shares.</li>
<li>Following mandatory conversions, the two remaining  tradable situations are Danieli (whose mandatory October 2020 conversion seems postponed) and Telecom Italia, trading at a premium awaiting dividends in arrears.</li>
</ul>


Italian savings shares (azioni di risparmio) are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to investors who prefer steady returns over company decision-making power.
Ordinary shares command higher prices due to voting rights and control, while preference shares are valued lower. In Italy, control is highly valued, thus a significant premium for ordinary shares.
Following mandatory conversions, the two remaining  tradable situations are Danieli (whose mandatory October 2020 conversion seems postponed) and Telecom Italia, trading at a premium awaiting dividends in arrears.


<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Italy

Telecom Italia is a multinational telecommunications company providing fixed and mobile telephony services, broadband internet, and digital solutions for individuals, households, and businesses. The company develops 4G and 5G mobile networks and fibre network infrastructure. It operates in Italy and Brazil. Telecom Italia was founded on July 27, 1994, and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

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Telecom Italia (TITR IM)

Poste/TIM: The €0.30 Sweetener Arrives, but the Spread Doesn't

Poste has delivered the €0.30 sweetener and waived the 66.67% threshold. With terms now final and the offer reopening later this month, the TIM...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Poste/TIM: Why Tender When the Market Pays More?

TIM continues to trade above offer terms as the deadline approaches. With early acceptances still low, the final two weeks could prove more...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Poste/TIM Update: More Certain, Not More Attractive

TIM's capital simplification and Board support strengthen deal certainty, but the market now reflects most of that progress. Our updated scenario...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Italian Savings Shares

Italian savings shares are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)