European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Italian savings shares (azioni di risparmio) are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to investors who prefer steady returns over company decision-making power.</li>
<li>Ordinary shares command higher prices due to voting rights and control, while preference shares are valued lower. In Italy, control is highly valued, thus a significant premium for ordinary shares.</li>
<li>Following mandatory conversions, the two remaining  tradable situations are Danieli (whose mandatory October 2020 conversion seems postponed) and Telecom Italia, trading at a premium awaiting dividends in arrears.</li>
</ul>


Italian savings shares (azioni di risparmio) are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to investors who prefer steady returns over company decision-making power.
Ordinary shares command higher prices due to voting rights and control, while preference shares are valued lower. In Italy, control is highly valued, thus a significant premium for ordinary shares.
Following mandatory conversions, the two remaining  tradable situations are Danieli (whose mandatory October 2020 conversion seems postponed) and Telecom Italia, trading at a premium awaiting dividends in arrears.


<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Poste’s €10.8bn cash-and-share offer for TIM leaves no meaningful arbitrage spread, with shares trading at parity to deal value and implying full completion plus residual optionality.</li>
<li>Conversion of savings shares raises execution complexity, requiring 58.53% minority acceptance; while achievable, this introduces coordination risk and modest potential for a sweetener if participation stalls.</li>
<li>With arbitrage carry effectively zero, the opportunity shifts to Poste, where post-announcement weakness may offer entry into a strategically attractive, synergy-driven consolidation at undemanding valuation.</li>
</ul>


Poste’s €10.8bn cash-and-share offer for TIM leaves no meaningful arbitrage spread, with shares trading at parity to deal value and implying full completion plus residual optionality.
Conversion of savings shares raises execution complexity, requiring 58.53% minority acceptance; while achievable, this introduces coordination risk and modest potential for a sweetener if participation stalls.
With arbitrage carry effectively zero, the opportunity shifts to Poste, where post-announcement weakness may offer entry into a strategically attractive, synergy-driven consolidation at undemanding valuation.


Poste–TIM: A Done Deal in Pricing, Not Yet in Votes

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.</li>
<li>We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.
We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

Italy

Telecom Italia S.p.A., through subsidiaries, offers fixed line and mobile telephone and data transmission services in Italy and abroad.  The Company offers local and long-distance telephone, satellite communications, Internet access, and teleconferencing services.

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Telecom Italia SPA (TIT IM)

Italian Savings Shares

Italian savings shares are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Poste–TIM: A Done Deal in Pricing, Not Yet in Votes

Poste’s bid for TIM looks like a done deal on price—but not yet on votes. With the spread gone, the real question shifts to execution risk and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

SE600 members Beazley and Schroders will be deleted from the index after today's close. We expect Vontobel (VONN SW) and B&M European Value Retail...

Afridi Reyal

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

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