European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Zegona has unlocked €1.8bn via fiber monetization, enabling a €1.6bn capital return and transforming its balance sheet with 69% share count reduction and lower leverage.</li>
<li>Trading at ~6.7x EBITDAaL, Zegona offers embedded upside through strategic rerating or a control premium from Telefónica or MasOrange, both reportedly exploring bids.</li>
<li>Post-Buyback, per-share economics improve dramatically, with lower debt, rising EBITDA, and potential for further upside via fiber JVs or a formal takeover process.</li>
</ul>


Zegona has unlocked €1.8bn via fiber monetization, enabling a €1.6bn capital return and transforming its balance sheet with 69% share count reduction and lower leverage.
Trading at ~6.7x EBITDAaL, Zegona offers embedded upside through strategic rerating or a control premium from Telefónica or MasOrange, both reportedly exploring bids.
Post-Buyback, per-share economics improve dramatically, with lower debt, rising EBITDA, and potential for further upside via fiber JVs or a formal takeover process.


Zegona Communications: From Turnaround to Capital Return Vehicle with M&A Optionality

<ul>
<li>The Spanish government extended the anti-takeover shield to December 31, 2026, maintaining oversight of foreign direct investments in critical sectors like energy, defense, and technology to safeguard national interests.</li>
<li>Investor concerns include regulatory uncertainty, lack of clear criteria, and expanded obligations under the 2023 Foreign Investment Law, deterring foreign investments and delaying significant projects.</li>
<li>Balancing security and openness preserves free capital movement benefits, addressing vulnerabilities while avoiding protectionism that could harm competitiveness and strain relationships with foreign partners.</li>
</ul>


The Spanish government extended the anti-takeover shield to December 31, 2026, maintaining oversight of foreign direct investments in critical sectors like energy, defense, and technology to safeguard national interests.
Investor concerns include regulatory uncertainty, lack of clear criteria, and expanded obligations under the 2023 Foreign Investment Law, deterring foreign investments and delaying significant projects.
Balancing security and openness preserves free capital movement benefits, addressing vulnerabilities while avoiding protectionism that could harm competitiveness and strain relationships with foreign partners.


Extension of Spain's 'Anti-Takeover Shield' and Investor Concerns

<ul>
<li>Telefónica evaluating 1&amp;1 takeover; tight float (UI 80.8%, Rentrop 4.5%). Our synergy DCF supports €26–€30/sh takeout (sweet spot €28–€29). Downside €19–€20; October 21, €21.80.</li>
<li>Probability-Weighted fair value: €23.83/sh (45% at €28.5, 55% at €20.0). Phase-II timeline 9–12 months; PW IRR +12.6% (9m) to +9.3% (12m), ex-fees/hedging.</li>
<li>Hedge long 1U1 with EU telco basket or DAX; O2 Deutschland short impractical (TEF owns ~96.85%). Key risks: heavy remedies, execution slippage, deal pivot to cooperation-only.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica evaluating 1&amp;1 takeover; tight float (UI 80.8%, Rentrop 4.5%). Our synergy DCF supports €26–€30/sh takeout (sweet spot €28–€29). Downside €19–€20; October 21, €21.80.
Probability-Weighted fair value: €23.83/sh (45% at €28.5, 55% at €20.0). Phase-II timeline 9–12 months; PW IRR +12.6% (9m) to +9.3% (12m), ex-fees/hedging.
Hedge long 1U1 with EU telco basket or DAX; O2 Deutschland short impractical (TEF owns ~96.85%). Key risks: heavy remedies, execution slippage, deal pivot to cooperation-only.


1&1: Telefónica Circling Germany’s #4 Mobile—tight Float, Heavy Remedies, Real Synergies

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.</li>
<li>At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.</li>
<li>Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.</li>
</ul>


Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.


Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> owns 100% of Vodafone Spain and is a pure-play turnaround and M&amp;A optionality vehicle in a consolidating European telecom market.</li>
<li>Telefónica and MasOrange are reportedly considering a bid, with potential upside of 25–83% depending on deal terms and valuation multiples.</li>
<li>Even without a sale, fibre JV monetization and cost-cutting support a standalone re-rating over the next 12–18 months.</li>
</ul>



Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) owns 100% of Vodafone Spain and is a pure-play turnaround and M&amp;A optionality vehicle in a consolidating European telecom market.
Telefónica and MasOrange are reportedly considering a bid, with potential upside of 25–83% depending on deal terms and valuation multiples.
Even without a sale, fibre JV monetization and cost-cutting support a standalone re-rating over the next 12–18 months.


Zegona Communications: M&A Optionality and Strategic Re-Rating

Spain

Telefonica S.A. provides telecommunications services mainly to countries in Europe and Latin America.  The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

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Telefonica SA (TEF SM)

Zegona Communications: From Turnaround to Capital Return Vehicle with M&A Optionality

Zegona has transitioned from turnaround to capital return, unlocking €1.8bn, reducing leverage, and remaining a live M&A target—offering 20–50%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Extension of Spain's 'Anti-Takeover Shield' and Investor Concerns

Spanish Government extends anti-takeover shield to 2026, overseeing foreign investments in critical sectors to protect national interests.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

1&1: Telefónica Circling Germany’s #4 Mobile—tight Float, Heavy Remedies, Real Synergies

Telefónica may bid for 1&1. Tight float, scarce borrow. Synergy-backed takeout €26–€30/sh (sweet spot €28–€29). PFV €23.83; Phase-II 9–12m implies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zegona Communications: M&A Optionality and Strategic Re-Rating

Zegona is a Vodafone Spain turnaround play with M&A tailwinds. Telefónica interest could trigger a bid; otherwise, fibre JV cash flow supports re...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zegona Communications: From Turnaround to Capital Return Vehicle with M&A Optionality

Zegona has transitioned from turnaround to capital return, unlocking €1.8bn, reducing leverage, and remaining a live M&A target—offering 20–50%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Extension of Spain's 'Anti-Takeover Shield' and Investor Concerns

​Spanish Government extends anti-takeover shield to 2026, overseeing foreign investments in critical sectors to protect national interests.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

1&1: Telefónica Circling Germany’s #4 Mobile—tight Float, Heavy Remedies, Real Synergies

Telefónica may bid for 1&1. Tight float, scarce borrow. Synergy-backed takeout €26–€30/sh (sweet spot €28–€29). PFV €23.83; Phase-II 9–12m implies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zegona Communications: M&A Optionality and Strategic Re-Rating

Zegona is a Vodafone Spain turnaround play with M&A tailwinds. Telefónica interest could trigger a bid; otherwise, fibre JV cash flow supports re...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spanish Government extends anti-takeover shield to 2026, overseeing foreign investments in critical sectors to protect national interests.