European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.</li>
<li>At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.</li>
<li>Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.</li>
</ul>


Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.


Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> owns 100% of Vodafone Spain and is a pure-play turnaround and M&amp;A optionality vehicle in a consolidating European telecom market.</li>
<li>Telefónica and MasOrange are reportedly considering a bid, with potential upside of 25–83% depending on deal terms and valuation multiples.</li>
<li>Even without a sale, fibre JV monetization and cost-cutting support a standalone re-rating over the next 12–18 months.</li>
</ul>



Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) owns 100% of Vodafone Spain and is a pure-play turnaround and M&amp;A optionality vehicle in a consolidating European telecom market.
Telefónica and MasOrange are reportedly considering a bid, with potential upside of 25–83% depending on deal terms and valuation multiples.
Even without a sale, fibre JV monetization and cost-cutting support a standalone re-rating over the next 12–18 months.


Zegona Communications: M&A Optionality and Strategic Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>Telefónica sold its Peruvian subsidiary to Integra Tec for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion in debt, following the unit’s bankruptcy filing and prolonged tax disputes in Peru.</li>
<li>The sale marks a strategic step in Telefónica’s Hispam exit, following disposals in Argentina and Colombia, and reinforces the company’s focus on core markets with higher returns.</li>
<li>Despite crystallizing a €620 million loss, the transaction removes a distressed asset, improves group visibility, and underscores management’s commitment to financial discipline and geopolitical de-risking across Latin America.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica sold its Peruvian subsidiary to Integra Tec for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion in debt, following the unit’s bankruptcy filing and prolonged tax disputes in Peru.
The sale marks a strategic step in Telefónica’s Hispam exit, following disposals in Argentina and Colombia, and reinforces the company’s focus on core markets with higher returns.
Despite crystallizing a €620 million loss, the transaction removes a distressed asset, improves group visibility, and underscores management’s commitment to financial discipline and geopolitical de-risking across Latin America.


Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

<ul>
<li>Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.</li>
<li>A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.</li>
<li>Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.
A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.
Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.


Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

Spain

Telefonica S.A. provides telecommunications services mainly to countries in Europe and Latin America.  The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

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Telefonica SA (TEF SM)

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zegona Communications: M&A Optionality and Strategic Re-Rating

Zegona is a Vodafone Spain turnaround play with M&A tailwinds. Telefónica interest could trigger a bid; otherwise, fibre JV cash flow supports re...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

Telefónica sells Peruvian subsidiary for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion debt, part of strategic exit from Hispam to focus on core...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zegona Communications: M&A Optionality and Strategic Re-Rating

Zegona is a Vodafone Spain turnaround play with M&A tailwinds. Telefónica interest could trigger a bid; otherwise, fibre JV cash flow supports re...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

​Telefónica sells Peruvian subsidiary for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion debt, part of strategic exit from Hispam to focus on core...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

​Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica sells Peruvian subsidiary for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion debt, part of strategic exit from Hispam to focus on core...

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...