European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Telefonica Deutschland Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> has decided to make a €2.35/share cash takeover offer to acquire the 5.65% stake in its German unit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-deutschland-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21687:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR)</a> that it does not own. </li>
<li>The bidder and parent company, Telefonica, have informed Telefonica Deutschland that, except for FY 2023 dividend, they do not plan to support the distribution of dividends for future financial years.</li>
<li>The Bidder will apply for delisting thus the shares will soon become illiquid. Accept offer.</li>
</ul>



Telefonica SA (TEF SM) has decided to make a €2.35/share cash takeover offer to acquire the 5.65% stake in its German unit Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR) that it does not own. 
The bidder and parent company, Telefonica, have informed Telefonica Deutschland that, except for FY 2023 dividend, they do not plan to support the distribution of dividends for future financial years.
The Bidder will apply for delisting thus the shares will soon become illiquid. Accept offer.


Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Delisting Offer

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are currently no changes expected for the DAX changes but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-lufthansa-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21667:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresenius-medical-care-ag-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21622:1" rel="noopener">Fresenius Medical Care &amp; (FME GR)</a> are quite close to becoming ADDs.</li>
<li>For the MDAX index, there could an intra-review change in January 2024 and then one more change in the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
There are currently no changes expected for the DAX changes but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) and Fresenius Medical Care &amp; (FME GR) are quite close to becoming ADDs.
For the MDAX index, there could an intra-review change in January 2024 and then one more change in the March 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Lufthansa, Zalando, Telefonica, Befesa

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

<ul>
<li>The Spanish Cabinet has agreed on the acquisition of up to 10% of the share capital of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> (c.€2.2 billion), higher than the 5% initially mentioned.</li>
<li>This should move the market as it represents 48 trading days. This also means that the Government will likely authorise the purchase of up to 9.9% by STC.</li>
<li>The Kingdom of Spain 10-y benchmark bond yield is 2.9%, while the 24e dividend yield of Telefonica is 8% (source: IBES), therefore the operation makes financial sense.</li>
</ul>


The Spanish Cabinet has agreed on the acquisition of up to 10% of the share capital of Telefonica SA (TEF SM) (c.€2.2 billion), higher than the 5% initially mentioned.
This should move the market as it represents 48 trading days. This also means that the Government will likely authorise the purchase of up to 9.9% by STC.
The Kingdom of Spain 10-y benchmark bond yield is 2.9%, while the 24e dividend yield of Telefonica is 8% (source: IBES), therefore the operation makes financial sense.


SEPI/Telefonica: Acquisition of a 10% Stake

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

Spain

Telefonica S.A. provides telecommunications services mainly to countries in Europe and Latin America.  The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

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Telefonica SA (TEF SM)

Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Delisting Offer

Telefonica SA offers €2.35/share to acquire remaining stake in Telefonica Deutschland Holding, plans to delist shares and halt future dividends....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Lufthansa, Zalando, Telefonica, Befesa

I expect Telefonica Deutschland to be deleted from the MDAX index in January 2024 once the Tender Offer results are confirmed. If this happens,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SEPI/Telefonica: Acquisition of a 10% Stake

The Spanish government plans to acquire up to 10% of Telefonica, a higher percentage than initially mentioned, to counterbalance the acquisitions...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Delisting Offer

​Telefonica SA offers €2.35/share to acquire remaining stake in Telefonica Deutschland Holding, plans to delist shares and halt future dividends....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Lufthansa, Zalando, Telefonica, Befesa

I expect Telefonica Deutschland to be deleted from the MDAX index in January 2024 once the Tender Offer results are confirmed. If this happens,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SEPI/Telefonica: Acquisition of a 10% Stake

​The Spanish government plans to acquire up to 10% of Telefonica, a higher percentage than initially mentioned, to counterbalance the acquisitions...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Telefonica SA offers €2.35/share to acquire remaining stake in Telefonica Deutschland Holding, plans to delist shares and halt future dividends....

The Spanish government plans to acquire up to 10% of Telefonica, a higher percentage than initially mentioned, to counterbalance the acquisitions...