Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Evergrande, Kerry Logistics, Milton, CBA, NTT

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. </p><p><strong><em>Companies mentioned this week:</em></strong></p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a></p>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Tencent (700 HK), NetEase (9999 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK), Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 13 August 2021

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

<p>Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.</p>

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.

Travis Lundy

<p>On Friday, it became known that S&amp;P Global ratings had lowered the ratings on Evergrande by two full notches, from B- to CCC, which is now four notches above Default. USD bonds issued by Scenery Journey were lowered from CCC+ to CCC-. </p><p>That was the second time in about ten days that S&amp;P had lowered rates (after the agency had lower rates after the Guangfa Bank account freezing episode, later resolved, and the issue in Shaoyang City which had accused Evergrande of not depositing pre-sale funds into the escrow accounts properly). </p><p>According to a Reuters article...</p><blockquote><p data-testid="paragraph-3">"We lowered the ratings because Evergrande's liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected," the rating agency said.</p></blockquote><div><div><div><div><blockquote><div id="reuters_desktop_native_1">It added the firm's nonpayment risk is escalating not only for the substantial public bond maturities in 2022, but also for its bank and trust loans and other debt liabilities over the next 12 months.</div></blockquote></div></div></div></div><p>This move followed Fitch and Moody's which had both dinged the ratings at end June and again on 28 July and 2 August, respectively. </p><p>To possibly make it worse on the ratings agency front, as of Friday after the close, China's financial regulators are also on the case, trying to root out weakness in "construction of ratings methods and systems" (which could be taken to mean corruption). The PBOC (announcement <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4311502/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a> in Chinese), in conjunction with the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the CBRC, and the CSRC, jointly issued the <em>"Notice on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Bond Market Credit Rating Industry"</em></p><p>On Friday, Caixin Media <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-08-06/exclusive-one-court-will-handle-developer-evergrandes-multitude-of-debt-lawsuits-101751875.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that the Supreme People's Court - the top court in China - had directed that all cases involving debts owed by Evergrande and its related parties be transferred to the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court. According to Caixin... </p><blockquote><p>A court insider said this kind of decision — known as “centralized jurisdiction” — is usually made when a company is involved in a large number of lawsuits across regions and the situation has the potential to cause a significant social impact.</p></blockquote><p>The article notes that other companies which have been subject to <em>centralized jurisdiction</em> include Peking University Founder Group, HNA Group - which have been put through bankruptcy and/or restructuring - and China Fortune Land Development which <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-02-02/developer-china-fortune-defaults-on-53-billion-yuan-in-debt-101659497.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defaulted</a> on repayment of debt in February, and <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-03-10/developer-china-fortune-defaults-on-another-13-billion-in-debt-101673624.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">again</a> in March. </p><p>Vice Premier Liu He apparently apparently pointed out in a State Council meeting the week before last that Evergrande's problems are one of "liquidity stress" rather than an "insolvency" situation. I'd note that a MinNews <a href="https://min.news/en/economy/aff8aa102018d13ea3af930f62859bdb.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> quoting a REDD report says HNA Group, China Fortune Land Development, and China Minsheng Investment were also assessed as having liquidity stress and "non-insolvent debt"</p><p>Banks have been asked to curb lending and in May were asked to stress-test their Evergrande exposure. Evergrande affiliate Shengjing Bank was fined in May for illegally financing real estate projects.</p><p>It would appear that Evergrande has decreasing room for manoeuvre. And that room for manoeuvre depends on others' confidence in stability of outcome. </p>

On Friday, it became known that S&amp;P Global ratings had lowered the ratings on Evergrande by two full notches, from B- to CCC, which is now four notches above Default. USD bonds issued by Scenery Journey were lowered from CCC+ to CCC-. That was the second time in about ten days that S&amp;P had lowered rates (after the agency had lower rates after the Guangfa Bank account freezing episode, later resolved, and the issue in Shaoyang City which had accused Evergrande of not depositing pre-sale funds into the escrow accounts properly). According to a Reuters article..."We lowered the ratings because Evergrande's liquidity position is eroding more quickly and by more than we previously expected," the rating agency said.It added the firm's nonpayment risk is escalating not only for the substantial public bond maturities in 2022, but also for its bank and trust loans and other debt liabilities over the next 12 months.This move followed Fitch and Moody's which had both dinged the ratings at end June and again on 28 July and 2 August, respectively. To possibly make it worse on the ratings agency front, as of Friday after the close, China's financial regulators are also on the case, trying to root out weakness in "construction of ratings methods and systems" (which could be taken to mean corruption). The PBOC (announcement link in Chinese), in conjunction with the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the CBRC, and the CSRC, jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Bond Market Credit Rating Industry"On Friday, Caixin Media reported that the Supreme People's Court - the top court in China - had directed that all cases involving debts owed by Evergrande and its related parties be transferred to the Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court. According to Caixin... A court insider said this kind of decision — known as “centralized jurisdiction” — is usually made when a company is involved in a large number of lawsuits across regions and the situation has the potential to cause a significant social impact.The article notes that other companies which have been subject to centralized jurisdiction include Peking University Founder Group, HNA Group - which have been put through bankruptcy and/or restructuring - and China Fortune Land Development which defaulted on repayment of debt in February, and again in March. Vice Premier Liu He apparently apparently pointed out in a State Council meeting the week before last that Evergrande's problems are one of "liquidity stress" rather than an "insolvency" situation. I'd note that a MinNews article quoting a REDD report says HNA Group, China Fortune Land Development, and China Minsheng Investment were also assessed as having liquidity stress and "non-insolvent debt"Banks have been asked to curb lending and in May were asked to stress-test their Evergrande exposure. Evergrande affiliate Shengjing Bank was fined in May for illegally financing real estate projects.It would appear that Evergrande has decreasing room for manoeuvre. And that room for manoeuvre depends on others' confidence in stability of outcome. 

Evergrande's Room for Manoeuvre - A Question of Confidence

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We owned Activision for many years until the pandemic when our thought was that like Netflix Activision had likely pulled in demand and would be enjoying a peak in near term earnings. The controversy around its work environment has provided an entry point for one of the best video game franchises as it is trading at 19x forward earnings, below even the March 2020 at the pandemic low. Given the stock’s longterm average of 25-26x, we think the risk reward here is compelling.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We owned Activision for many years until the pandemic when our thought was that like Netflix Activision had likely pulled in demand and would be enjoying a peak in near term earnings. The controversy around its work environment has provided an entry point for one of the best video game franchises as it is trading at 19x forward earnings, below even the March 2020 at the pandemic low. Given the stock’s longterm average of 25-26x, we think the risk reward here is compelling.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Evergrande, Kerry Logistics, Milton, CBA, NTT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 13 August 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #44

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic...

Granite Bay Capital

Evergrande's Room for Manoeuvre - A Question of Confidence

Evergrande bad news again chips away at the bonds. Late last week saw the 2nd downgrade by S&P in 10 days, and a "centralisation of jurisdiction"...

Travis Lundy

ATVI 2Q21: Its Time to Buy Activision

The controversy around ATVI's work environment has provided an entry point for one of the best video game franchises as it is trading at 19x...

Aaron Gabin

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