IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>Founded in 2003, Tesla, Inc. is a US-based technology and manufacturing company focused on electric vehicles, energy generation and storage systems, autonomous driving software and artificial intelligence-enabled technologies.</li><li>The company operates through two main segments: Automotive and Energy Generation and Storage.</li><li>Tesla was originally established as a premium electric vehicle manufacturer, but it has since expanded into adjacent businesses and technologies, including battery energy storage, charging infrastructure, autonomous driving, robotics and artificial intelligence, positioning itself as a broader sustainable energy and technology platform.</li></ul>

Founded in 2003, Tesla, Inc. is a US-based technology and manufacturing company focused on electric vehicles, energy generation and storage systems, autonomous driving software and artificial intelligence-enabled technologies.The company operates through two main segments: Automotive and Energy Generation and Storage.Tesla was originally established as a premium electric vehicle manufacturer, but it has since expanded into adjacent businesses and technologies, including battery energy storage, charging infrastructure, autonomous driving, robotics and artificial intelligence, positioning itself as a broader sustainable energy and technology platform.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): M&A Activity & Strategy Review - June 2026

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Valuation detachment: Every conventional metric — P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF — the current price cannot be grounded in earnings. The premium is a bet on revenues that do not yet exist</li>
<li>Analysts prices Tesla on two entirely different frameworks — one anchored to cash flows, one to a platform yet to be built. Thus far, the platform camp is up.</li>
<li>Tesla's 5-year beta is ~2.3x. In 2022 the stock fell 65% while the S&amp;P lost 19%. When risk appetite retreats, TSLA tends to lead the move lower.</li>
</ul>


Valuation detachment: Every conventional metric — P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF — the current price cannot be grounded in earnings. The premium is a bet on revenues that do not yet exist
Analysts prices Tesla on two entirely different frameworks — one anchored to cash flows, one to a platform yet to be built. Thus far, the platform camp is up.
Tesla's 5-year beta is ~2.3x. In 2022 the stock fell 65% while the S&amp;P lost 19%. When risk appetite retreats, TSLA tends to lead the move lower.


TESLA (TSLA US): A Forensic Valuation of the World's Most Contested Stock

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): M&A Activity & Strategy Review - June 2026

Founded in 2003, Tesla, Inc. is a US-based technology and manufacturing company focused on electric vehicles, energy generation and storage...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

TESLA (TSLA US): A Forensic Valuation of the World's Most Contested Stock

Tesla's high valuation is detached from conventional metrics, betting on future revenues. However, all SHORT attempts have end up with a bloody...

Mo Aziz

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2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): M&A Activity & Strategy Review - June 2026

Founded in 2003, Tesla, Inc. is a US-based technology and manufacturing company focused on electric vehicles, energy generation and storage...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

TESLA (TSLA US): A Forensic Valuation of the World's Most Contested Stock

​Tesla's high valuation is detached from conventional metrics, betting on future revenues. However, all SHORT attempts have end up with a bloody...

Mo Aziz

Tesla's high valuation is detached from conventional metrics, betting on future revenues. However, all SHORT attempts have end up with a bloody...