Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  </li>
<li>Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. </li>
<li>What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. </li>
</ul>


Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  
Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. 
What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. 


Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal Thursday as confirmed today via a filing with the SEC to delist its stock. </li>
<li>We don't know if Elon sold more Tesla to cover his cash shortfall. If not, where did he get it? </li>
<li>He also sent Tesla's engineers to assess how to fix Twitter. Like, sharing resources. Establishing synergies. Maybe creating an excuse to direct Tesla to "invest" into Twitter, as I suspected.</li>
</ul>


Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal Thursday as confirmed today via a filing with the SEC to delist its stock. 
We don't know if Elon sold more Tesla to cover his cash shortfall. If not, where did he get it? 
He also sent Tesla's engineers to assess how to fix Twitter. Like, sharing resources. Establishing synergies. Maybe creating an excuse to direct Tesla to "invest" into Twitter, as I suspected.


Elon Has "Freed" Twitter: Send The Ravens

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn't seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.</li>
<li>The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. </li>
<li>On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla's weak Q3 results throughout next week. </li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn't seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.
The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. 
On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla's weak Q3 results throughout next week. 


Tesla's Q3 Results Disappoint for the First Time Since Q4 2020

<ul>
<li>Tesla will announce Q3 2022 earnings results after the US market close on October 19th. </li>
<li>Given that CEO Elon Musk needs to sell more of his Tesla shares to fund his Twitter buyout by month end, the Street widely expects a huge earnings beat. </li>
<li>Q3 fundamentals were weak for Tesla and orders in Q4 point to another delivery miss versus consensus. We recommend selling into any spike on a positive Q3 print. </li>
</ul>


Tesla will announce Q3 2022 earnings results after the US market close on October 19th. 
Given that CEO Elon Musk needs to sell more of his Tesla shares to fund his Twitter buyout by month end, the Street widely expects a huge earnings beat. 
Q3 fundamentals were weak for Tesla and orders in Q4 point to another delivery miss versus consensus. We recommend selling into any spike on a positive Q3 print. 


Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview--Beat Widely Expected Due to Musk's Twitter Deal

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Tesla sees a 9% earnings miss and warns that raw material headwinds remain in 2023. Recent consensus estimates for 2023 now imply at least a 2%...

SC Capital

Elon Has "Freed" Twitter: Send The Ravens

Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal yesterday as confirmed today via SEC filing to delist its stock. Still no filing that Elon sold Tesla to cover...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla's Q3 Results Disappoint for the First Time Since Q4 2020

What was expected to be a Q3 beat at Tesla turned into a Q3 disappointment. Many accounting tricks appear to have padded cash flows and Tesla...

SC Capital

Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview--Beat Widely Expected Due to Musk's Twitter Deal

Tesla could announce a huge Q3 beat and possibly a share buyback, as Musk needs to sell more Tesla shares in order to fund his Twitter buyout by...

SC Capital

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

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