Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We believe revenue will grow by 44% in 2023 according to the sales volume and the price trend.</li>
<li>We believe net profit will increase by 100%, higher than the company’s estimate.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 54% and a price target of HK$304. Buy.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will grow by 44% in 2023 according to the sales volume and the price trend.
We believe net profit will increase by 100%, higher than the company’s estimate.
We conclude an upside of 54% and a price target of HK$304. Buy.


BYD (1211 HK) 2023 Earnings Preview: Strong Top Line and Bottom Line

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

<ul>
<li>Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla's blended ASP decline to decelerate. </li>
<li>Due to Tesla's cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.</li>
<li>Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.</li>
</ul>


Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla's blended ASP decline to decelerate. 
Due to Tesla's cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.
Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.


Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>1H result was mixed; revenue went up, but operating income was -57% YoY caused by EV margin contraction. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> shut down its solar roof tiles, which was supposed to be a high-margin business due to a variety of reasons, including phasing out of <strong>Clean Energy Credit. </strong>
</li>
<li>It has set a date for the Cybercap launch 3rd Sept 2026 that will push the share price up. Cover some of your short now to lock in your profit.</li>
</ul>


1H result was mixed; revenue went up, but operating income was -57% YoY caused by EV margin contraction. 

Tesla (TSLA US) shut down its solar roof tiles, which was supposed to be a high-margin business due to a variety of reasons, including phasing out of Clean Energy Credit. 

It has set a date for the Cybercap launch 3rd Sept 2026 that will push the share price up. Cover some of your short now to lock in your profit.


United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

BYD (1211 HK) 2023 Earnings Preview: Strong Top Line and Bottom Line

We believe revenue will grow by 44% in 2023 according to the sales volume and the price trend. We also believe net profit will increase by 100%,...

Ming Lu

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV. Due to pricing stability and Tesla's cost cutting efforts, profits/EV...

Andrew Lu

Tesla (TSLA): Still a Short, But...

Still a short, but the imminent Cybercab launch date will push share price up. Please cover your shorts temporarily. You can always re-initiate...

Henry Soediarko

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