Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 24th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Krung Thai Bank, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Gunkul Engineering, CP Foods, Bumrungrad Hospital, Krung Thai Bank, Cp Foods, Bumrungrad Hospital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 24th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Krung Thai Bank, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Gunkul Engineering, CP Foods, Bumrungrad Hospital, Krung Thai Bank, Cp Foods, Bumrungrad Hospital.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 24th): Krung Thai Bank, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, CP Foods

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In May and June, domestic and outbound Chinese travel demand both softened</li>
<li>Given higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment, this shouldn't be a surprise</li>
<li>For Trip.com, we believe tepid Chinese demand could delay recovery in momentum</li>
</ul>


In May and June, domestic and outbound Chinese travel demand both softened
Given higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment, this shouldn't be a surprise
For Trip.com, we believe tepid Chinese demand could delay recovery in momentum


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | May, June, Q2 All Show A Clear Softening of Chinese Travel Demand

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 17th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CP Foods, Krung Thai Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, SCB X, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Krung Thai Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, Cp Foods, Scb X.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 17th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CP Foods, Krung Thai Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, SCB X, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Krung Thai Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, Cp Foods, Scb X.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 17th): CP Foods, Krung Thai Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, SCB X

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the review, we look at the distressed Thai aviation industry from four key angles. While there is considerable upside to be had from a sectoral turnaround, survival of most local carriers, with the exception of Bangkok Airways, is really at risk, and neither the government nor private sector may be up to the task of rescuing them:<ul>
<li>
The existential crisis. With Bt330bn of debts in default, Thai Airways is the largest bankruptcy in Thai history, 5.5x the size of TPI's case in 1997. Former subsidiary Nok Air and archrival Air Asia are also restructuring. There's no guarantee any of them will survive the crisis.</li>
<li>
The rescue plans &amp; finances involved. Thai Airways will spend Bt3bn hiring Advisors (Baker &amp; Mckenzie, E&amp;Y, and Finansia). The industry will lay off close to 10,000 people (if not more) to cut costs and are now looking for Bt17bn in soft loans. Even in the best case, THAI probably will need 5 years to get back to profitability...if it survives.</li>
<li>
Reliance on domestic travel and non-core revenues. With international tourism basically dried up, airlines increasingly rely on domestic travel, but that hardly fills their collective fleet of 200 planes. With THAI and NOK at negative equity and AAV at 3.5x gearing, they make money wherever they can now in the short term, ignoring all impact on image.</li>
<li>
International travel recovery. In the long run, international tourism recovery is vital. If the three carriers disappear, it could be a windfall for Bangkok Airways and foreign airlines like Emirates. </li>
</ul>

In the review, we look at the distressed Thai aviation industry from four key angles. While there is considerable upside to be had from a sectoral turnaround, survival of most local carriers, with the exception of Bangkok Airways, is really at risk, and neither the government nor private sector may be up to the task of rescuing them:

The existential crisis. With Bt330bn of debts in default, Thai Airways is the largest bankruptcy in Thai history, 5.5x the size of TPI's case in 1997. Former subsidiary Nok Air and archrival Air Asia are also restructuring. There's no guarantee any of them will survive the crisis.

The rescue plans &amp; finances involved. Thai Airways will spend Bt3bn hiring Advisors (Baker &amp; Mckenzie, E&amp;Y, and Finansia). The industry will lay off close to 10,000 people (if not more) to cut costs and are now looking for Bt17bn in soft loans. Even in the best case, THAI probably will need 5 years to get back to profitability...if it survives.

Reliance on domestic travel and non-core revenues. With international tourism basically dried up, airlines increasingly rely on domestic travel, but that hardly fills their collective fleet of 200 planes. With THAI and NOK at negative equity and AAV at 3.5x gearing, they make money wherever they can now in the short term, ignoring all impact on image.

International travel recovery. In the long run, international tourism recovery is vital. If the three carriers disappear, it could be a windfall for Bangkok Airways and foreign airlines like Emirates. 


Mission Impossible 2021: Rescuing the Thai Airline Industry

<ul>
<li>Strong top-line growth in Q126, but also margin compression due to rising OpEx</li>
<li>For Q2, Trip.com guided slower revenue growth and concomitant margin impacts</li>
<li>An antitrust investigation into Trip.com appears to be undermining growth trajectory</li>
</ul>


Strong top-line growth in Q126, but also margin compression due to rising OpEx
For Q2, Trip.com guided slower revenue growth and concomitant margin impacts
An antitrust investigation into Trip.com appears to be undermining growth trajectory


Trip.com Q126 Results | Strong Top-Line, Lower Margins | Ongoing Investigation To Hit Growth in Q226

Thailand

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is the flag carrier airline of Thailand, providing passenger, cargo, and mail transportation on scheduled and chartered flights to domestic and international destinations. The company also offers related services such as ground handling, catering, and aircraft maintenance. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1960.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 24th): Krung Thai Bank, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, CP Foods

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB), THAI AIRWAYS...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | May, June, Q2 All Show A Clear Softening of Chinese Travel Demand

Data from May, June, and Q226 show a softening in Chinese air travel demand, for both domestic and outbound travel. Tepid demand will make a quick...

Tracking Traffic

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 17th): CP Foods, Krung Thai Bank, Bumrungrad Hospital, SCB X

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in CP Foods (CPF TB), Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mission Impossible 2021: Rescuing the Thai Airline Industry

Bangkok Airways might be the only survivor amongst the 4 listed carriers. Short term, Thai aviation relies on domestic tourist, but long term,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Trip.com Q126 Results | Strong Top-Line, Lower Margins | Ongoing Investigation To Hit Growth in Q226

Q126 saw strong revenue growth and some margin erosion. More importantly, weak Q226 guidance appears to highlight the heavy impact an ongoing...

Tracking Traffic

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