Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright outrageous. Yes, there will always be another trade, yet not all trades are created equal – far from it </li><li>Equities: Europe Up, US down.</li><li>US4QGDP: I’d expect more uplift to feed through, as the full effect of the over 50% fall in oil feeds into discretionary spending. </li><li>Alibaba and Yahoo: Opportunity of potentially getting a discount exposure into Alibaba’s shares through the Spin Co </li><li>Alibaba’s big miss on the bottom line, sent its shares down c. -14% for the week – primarily due to options compensation expenses – with a Friday close of sub 90 at $89.08, its looking interesting. 2016 valuation wise, its in-line with FB at 31x P/E yet set to grow at a faster clip at +35% earnings. </li><li>CAD: When you trade CAD, a part of you is taking a view on oil… </li></ul>

Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright outrageous. Yes, there will always be another trade, yet not all trades are created equal – far from it Equities: Europe Up, US down.US4QGDP: I’d expect more uplift to feed through, as the full effect of the over 50% fall in oil feeds into discretionary spending. Alibaba and Yahoo: Opportunity of potentially getting a discount exposure into Alibaba’s shares through the Spin Co Alibaba’s big miss on the bottom line, sent its shares down c. -14% for the week – primarily due to options compensation expenses – with a Friday close of sub 90 at $89.08, its looking interesting. 2016 valuation wise, its in-line with FB at 31x P/E yet set to grow at a faster clip at +35% earnings. CAD: When you trade CAD, a part of you is taking a view on oil… 

The Matrix: A Strategist's roving thoughts: Swiss Francs, Europe, Alibaba

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<span style='font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;'>The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Monetary policy in the euro area remains slow to respond to the persistent decline in inflation and as a result, the region is vulnerable to any shock that leads to further disinflation or outright deflation.&nbsp; The IMF appears to have adopted the Larry Summers ‘secular stagnation’ view of the post crisis global economy, which draws heavily on the Reinhart/Rogoff interpretation of history; that recoveries from balance sheet recessions are structural and therefore painfully slow.&nbsp; As long as the IMF and other economic forecasters continue to downgrade expectations of global growth, investors should be overweight safe assets and defensive sectors within stock markets, particularly companies that offer sustainably high payout yields, and strong earnings predictability.&nbsp;

The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Monetary policy in the euro area remains slow to respond to the persistent decline in inflation and as a result, the region is vulnerable to any shock that leads to further disinflation or outright deflation.&nbsp; The IMF appears to have adopted the Larry Summers ‘secular stagnation’ view of the post crisis global economy, which draws heavily on the Reinhart/Rogoff interpretation of history; that recoveries from balance sheet recessions are structural and therefore painfully slow.&nbsp; As long as the IMF and other economic forecasters continue to downgrade expectations of global growth, investors should be overweight safe assets and defensive sectors within stock markets, particularly companies that offer sustainably high payout yields, and strong earnings predictability.&nbsp; 

The IMF's Patience with the ECB Wears Thin

<ul><li>Post SNB surprise announcement yesterday - after leading the market on as recently as a few weeks ago on – the term “Never trust a Swiss central banker” will soon become mainstream.&nbsp; </li><li>In this piece, KVP takes a snap shot of what happened, the significance &amp; potential ways to look to play things going forward. </li></ul>

Post SNB surprise announcement yesterday - after leading the market on as recently as a few weeks ago on – the term “Never trust a Swiss central banker” will soon become mainstream.&nbsp; In this piece, KVP takes a snap shot of what happened, the significance &amp; potential ways to look to play things going forward. 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Cigna Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating robust performance amid a dynamic market environment.</li><li>The company highlighted total revenues of $65.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.74.</li><li>Subsequently, Cigna increased its full-year EPS guidance to at least $29.60.</li></ul>

Cigna Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating robust performance amid a dynamic market environment.The company highlighted total revenues of $65.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.74.Subsequently, Cigna increased its full-year EPS guidance to at least $29.60.

Cigna Group: Broad Suite of GLP-1 Solutions to Innovate & Lead In Addressing Contemporary Healthcare Challenges Efficiently!

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.</li>
<li>Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.</li>
<li>A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.</li>
</ul>


Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.
Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.
A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.


Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

United States

The Cigna Group operates as an insurance company. The Company offers life, accident, disability, supplemental, medicare, and dental insurance products and services. The Cigna Group serves individuals, families, and businesses worldwide.

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Cigna Group (CI US)

The Matrix: A Strategist's roving thoughts: Swiss Francs, Europe, Alibaba

Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright...

Kay Van-Petersen

The IMF's Patience with the ECB Wears Thin

The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy. Monetary policy in...

Sam Ferraro

Never Trust A Swiss Central Banker

Post SNB surprise announcement yesterday - after leading the market on as recently as a few weeks ago on – the term “Never trust a Swiss central...

Kay Van-Petersen

Cigna Group: Broad Suite of GLP-1 Solutions to Innovate & Lead In Addressing Contemporary Healthcare Challenges Efficiently!

Cigna Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating robust performance amid a dynamic market environment. The company...

Baptista Research

Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

Omada Health, a virtual healthcare provider for chronic conditions, set to IPO with expected price range of $18 to $20 per share, aiming for a...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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The Matrix: A Strategist's roving thoughts: Swiss Francs, Europe, Alibaba

Key Call: STILL people are not catching up and/or doing the work on KVP’s high conviction long DollarSwissy call, I know, I know, it’s downright...

Kay Van-Petersen

The IMF's Patience with the ECB Wears Thin

The updated World Economic Outlook reveals that the IMF is (rightly) fed up with the ECB’s timid approach to monetary policy. Monetary policy in...

Sam Ferraro

Never Trust A Swiss Central Banker

Post SNB surprise announcement yesterday - after leading the market on as recently as a few weeks ago on – the term “Never trust a Swiss central...

Kay Van-Petersen

Cigna Group: Broad Suite of GLP-1 Solutions to Innovate & Lead In Addressing Contemporary Healthcare Challenges Efficiently!

Cigna Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating robust performance amid a dynamic market environment. The company...

Baptista Research

Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

​Omada Health, a virtual healthcare provider for chronic conditions, set to IPO with expected price range of $18 to $20 per share, aiming for a...

Andrei Zakharov

Omada Health, a virtual healthcare provider for chronic conditions, set to IPO with expected price range of $18 to $20 per share, aiming for a...