External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect the tin price rally and tighter enforcement to drive production to rebound from 4Q25F.</li><li>We raised FY25F/FY26F earnings by 19%/206% to Rp1.0/2.4tr, as we assume a higher tin price and stronger production of 45k.</li><li>Resume coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp3,000 (based on 9x FY26F P/E). We see catalystsfrom an enforcement-driven production rebound.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the tin price rally and tighter enforcement to drive production to rebound from 4Q25F.We raised FY25F/FY26F earnings by 19%/206% to Rp1.0/2.4tr, as we assume a higher tin price and stronger production of 45k.Resume coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp3,000 (based on 9x FY26F P/E). We see catalystsfrom an enforcement-driven production rebound.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Stronger Production Prospect Drives Upgrades on FY26F Earnings Outlook

<ul><li>1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.</li><li>We revised down our production/sales and cash cost estimates, which decreased our FY25-26F net profit est. by -44%/46% to Rp903bn/798bn. </li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating on attractive dividend upside but at a lower TP of Rp1,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.We revised down our production/sales and cash cost estimates, which decreased our FY25-26F net profit est. by -44%/46% to Rp903bn/798bn. We reiterate our BUY rating on attractive dividend upside but at a lower TP of Rp1,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Trimming FY25-26F Estimates Post 1Q25 Earnings Miss

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Growth momentum improving. Accelerating disbursement and BI’s policy easing expected to strengthen growth toward year-end.</li><li>Beyond yield gaps. Foreign inflows often rise despite narrower BI–Fed spreads, showing growth differential drives sustained capital inflows.</li><li>Long-term foreign investment depends on Indonesia maintaining solid, broad-based, and stable economic growth momentum.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growth momentum improving. Accelerating disbursement and BI’s policy easing expected to strengthen growth toward year-end.Beyond yield gaps. Foreign inflows often rise despite narrower BI–Fed spreads, showing growth differential drives sustained capital inflows.Long-term foreign investment depends on Indonesia maintaining solid, broad-based, and stable economic growth momentum.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: Growth Over Differentials

<ul><li>Nickel ore price has risen +19% YTD, while NPI declined -2%, pressuring non-integrated mines from inventory stocking at thin margins.</li><li>Despite recent reversal of nickel ore premium trend, 2H25 outlook hinges on supply addition, restocking season and RKAB approval.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the sector and continue to favor ore over MHP and NPI; INCO and MBMA are our current top picks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nickel ore price has risen +19% YTD, while NPI declined -2%, pressuring non-integrated mines from inventory stocking at thin margins.Despite recent reversal of nickel ore premium trend, 2H25 outlook hinges on supply addition, restocking season and RKAB approval.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the sector and continue to favor ore over MHP and NPI; INCO and MBMA are our current top picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Ore Premium Reversal in Jul25

Indonesia

PT Timah (Persero) Tbk operates tin mines on Indonesian islands such as Bangka and Karimun, and coastal areas of Sumatra. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides consultancy, shipping dockyard and workshop, transportation, exploration, and research and development services.

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Timah Persero (TINS IJ)

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Stronger Production Prospect Drives Upgrades on FY26F Earnings Outlook

Resume coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp3,000 (based on 9x FY26F P/E). We see catalystsfrom an enforcement-driven production rebound.

BRI Danareksa Research

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Trimming FY25-26F Estimates Post 1Q25 Earnings Miss

1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Macro Strategy: Growth Over Differentials

Indonesia’s economy maintained solid momentum in 3Q25, recording 5.04% y-y (1.43% q-q) growth, although slightly easing from 2Q25’s 5.12%.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Ore Premium Reversal in Jul25

Nickel ore price has risen +19% YTD, while NPI declined -2%, pressuring non-integrated mines from inventory stocking at thin margins.

BRI Danareksa Research

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