External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TINS’ 3Q24 performance beat our estimate due to stronger ASP and lower cash cost.</li><li>We revised up our production/sales and ASP estimates, which increased our FY24-25F net profit est. by +59.9%/104.9% to Rp1.4tr/Rp1.9tr. </li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TINS’ 3Q24 performance beat our estimate due to stronger ASP and lower cash cost.We revised up our production/sales and ASP estimates, which increased our FY24-25F net profit est. by +59.9%/104.9% to Rp1.4tr/Rp1.9tr. We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah - Upgrading FY24-25F Est. Post 3Q24 Earnings Beat

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>While Tin prices have softened, China still struggles to source tin ore, which has decreased refined tin production by 31% mom. </li><li>We expect Ni ore premium to ease after WBN’s RKAB quota release, while NPI price surged due to china’s temporary ss restocking. </li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While Tin prices have softened, China still struggles to source tin ore, which has decreased refined tin production by 31% mom. We expect Ni ore premium to ease after WBN’s RKAB quota release, while NPI price surged due to china’s temporary ss restocking. We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: NPI Price Could Weaken on RKAB Release

<ul><li>We estimate the sector’s 3Q24 earnings to fall back on lower ASP, though they may still beat estimates due to low expectations.</li><li>We expect TINS to be the best performer in 3Q24 amid stable ASP with improvements in volume, while NCKL could be the strongest nickel play.</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as top picks due to a stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the sector’s 3Q24 earnings to fall back on lower ASP, though they may still beat estimates due to low expectations.We expect TINS to be the best performer in 3Q24 amid stable ASP with improvements in volume, while NCKL could be the strongest nickel play.We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as top picks due to a stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Expect a Slower Quarter, but a Majority Beat in 9M24 Due to Low Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Timah (Persero) Tbk operates tin mines on Indonesian islands such as Bangka and Karimun, and coastal areas of Sumatra. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides consultancy, shipping dockyard and workshop, transportation, exploration, and research and development services.

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Timah Persero (TINS IJ)

Timah - Upgrading FY24-25F Est. Post 3Q24 Earnings Beat

We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: NPI Price Could Weaken on RKAB Release

While Tin prices have softened, China still struggles to source tin ore, which has decreased refined tin production by 31% mom.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Expect a Slower Quarter, but a Majority Beat in 9M24 Due to Low Expectations

We estimate the sector’s 3Q24 earnings to fall back on lower ASP, though they may still beat estimates due to low expectations.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: 3Q24 Preview

We estimate the sector’s 3Q24 earnings to fall back on lower ASP, though they may still beat estimates due to low expectations.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in October. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

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