External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.</li><li>We expect TINS to be the best performer in 2Q24 as its ASP and volume improve, while NCKL has the least growth as it already had a solid 1Q24</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.We expect TINS to be the best performer in 2Q24 as its ASP and volume improve, while NCKL has the least growth as it already had a solid 1Q24We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The LME tin price is up +24% QTD to an average US$32.4k/t due to supply constraints from China, Myanmar, and Indonesia.</li><li>We expect TINS’ 2Q24 earnings to improve considerably, driven by higher ASP and continued robust cash cost management.</li><li>We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The LME tin price is up +24% QTD to an average US$32.4k/t due to supply constraints from China, Myanmar, and Indonesia.We expect TINS’ 2Q24 earnings to improve considerably, driven by higher ASP and continued robust cash cost management.We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah - Expect a Positive 2Q24 Outlook Fueled by Strong LME Tin Prices

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

<ul><li>TINS sets an optimistic FY24 production target of 30k tons (+100% yoy) of tin metal; we forecast a more conservative 26k tons (+69.5% yoy).</li><li>We expect TINS to benefit from the current intensifying oversight of tin mining activities in Pangkal Pinang and Bangka Belitung.</li><li>We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a lower TP of Rp1,400 as we apply lower LT tin price at US$25k/t (Prev: US$30k/t).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TINS sets an optimistic FY24 production target of 30k tons (+100% yoy) of tin metal; we forecast a more conservative 26k tons (+69.5% yoy).We expect TINS to benefit from the current intensifying oversight of tin mining activities in Pangkal Pinang and Bangka Belitung.We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a lower TP of Rp1,400 as we apply lower LT tin price at US$25k/t (Prev: US$30k/t).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah - Expect a Major Turnaround in FY24F from Improving Tin Mining Practices

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

Indonesia

PT Timah (Persero) Tbk operates tin mines on Indonesian islands such as Bangka and Karimun, and coastal areas of Sumatra. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides consultancy, shipping dockyard and workshop, transportation, exploration, and research and development services.

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Timah Persero (TINS IJ)

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.

BRI Danareksa Research

Timah - Expect a Positive 2Q24 Outlook Fueled by Strong LME Tin Prices

We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Timah - Expect a Major Turnaround in FY24F from Improving Tin Mining Practices

TINS sets an optimistic FY24 production target of 30k tons (+100% yoy) of tin metal; we forecast a more conservative 26k tons (+69.5% yoy).

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.

BRI Danareksa Research

Timah - Expect a Positive 2Q24 Outlook Fueled by Strong LME Tin Prices

We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and an unchanged TP of Rp1,400. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Timah - Expect a Major Turnaround in FY24F from Improving Tin Mining Practices

TINS sets an optimistic FY24 production target of 30k tons (+100% yoy) of tin metal; we forecast a more conservative 26k tons (+69.5% yoy).

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks