SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SGX lists four stocks mining industrial minerals including tantalite, phosphate, limestone and marble, four coal mining stocks and three gold mining stocks. These 11 stocks are at different stages in the exploration, development, production cycle and have averaged a 19.0% gain in 2017 YTD.</li>
<li>
Of the three segments, mining industrial minerals has been the strongest performer in the 2017 YTD with an average 30.4% gain, led Alliance Minerals Assets. Coal was the next best performer with the four stocks…</li>
</ul>


SGX lists four stocks mining industrial minerals including tantalite, phosphate, limestone and marble, four coal mining stocks and three gold mining stocks. These 11 stocks are at different stages in the exploration, development, production cycle and have averaged a 19.0% gain in 2017 YTD.

Of the three segments, mining industrial minerals has been the strongest performer in the 2017 YTD with an average 30.4% gain, led Alliance Minerals Assets. Coal was the next best performer with the four stocks…


Average 19% YTD Gain in Key Mining Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect the tin price rally and tighter enforcement to drive production to rebound from 4Q25F.</li><li>We raised FY25F/FY26F earnings by 19%/206% to Rp1.0/2.4tr, as we assume a higher tin price and stronger production of 45k.</li><li>Resume coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp3,000 (based on 9x FY26F P/E). We see catalystsfrom an enforcement-driven production rebound.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the tin price rally and tighter enforcement to drive production to rebound from 4Q25F.We raised FY25F/FY26F earnings by 19%/206% to Rp1.0/2.4tr, as we assume a higher tin price and stronger production of 45k.Resume coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp3,000 (based on 9x FY26F P/E). We see catalystsfrom an enforcement-driven production rebound.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Stronger Production Prospect Drives Upgrades on FY26F Earnings Outlook

<ul><li>1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.</li><li>We revised down our production/sales and cash cost estimates, which decreased our FY25-26F net profit est. by -44%/46% to Rp903bn/798bn. </li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating on attractive dividend upside but at a lower TP of Rp1,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.We revised down our production/sales and cash cost estimates, which decreased our FY25-26F net profit est. by -44%/46% to Rp903bn/798bn. We reiterate our BUY rating on attractive dividend upside but at a lower TP of Rp1,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Trimming FY25-26F Estimates Post 1Q25 Earnings Miss

<ul><li>TINS’ 3Q24 performance beat our estimate due to stronger ASP and lower cash cost.</li><li>We revised up our production/sales and ASP estimates, which increased our FY24-25F net profit est. by +59.9%/104.9% to Rp1.4tr/Rp1.9tr. </li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TINS’ 3Q24 performance beat our estimate due to stronger ASP and lower cash cost.We revised up our production/sales and ASP estimates, which increased our FY24-25F net profit est. by +59.9%/104.9% to Rp1.4tr/Rp1.9tr. We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Timah - Upgrading FY24-25F Est. Post 3Q24 Earnings Beat

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Timah Tbk is an Indonesian state-owned enterprise primarily engaged in integrated tin mining and smelting operations, including exploration, processing, and marketing of tin metal and its derivatives. The company also produces non-tin products such as coal, nickel, and quartz sand, and is involved in industrial, trading, transportation, and various services. Headquartered in Pangkalpinang, Bangka, Indonesia, the company was founded on August 2, 1976.

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Timah (TINS IJ)

Average 19% YTD Gain in Key Mining Stocks

SGX lists four stocks mining industrial minerals including tantalite, phosphate, limestone and marble, four coal mining stocks and three gold...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Stronger Production Prospect Drives Upgrades on FY26F Earnings Outlook

Resume coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp3,000 (based on 9x FY26F P/E). We see catalystsfrom an enforcement-driven production rebound.

BRI Danareksa Research

Timah (TINS.IJ) - Trimming FY25-26F Estimates Post 1Q25 Earnings Miss

1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.

BRI Danareksa Research

Timah - Upgrading FY24-25F Est. Post 3Q24 Earnings Beat

We reiterate our BUY rating on stronger earnings prospects with higher TP of Rp2,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in October. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

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