Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in July, cashed-up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> was reportedly running a ruler over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Berkshire's recent investment in Tokio Marine appears to have jumpstarted its M&amp;A ambitions. Late August, Tokio Marine (also reportedly) identified Suncorp as its preferred takeover target </li>
<li>Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)</a> in 2024. IAG is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation. </li>
</ul>


Back in July, cashed-up Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) was reportedly running a ruler over Insurance Australia (IAG AU) or Suncorp (SUN AU).
Berkshire's recent investment in Tokio Marine appears to have jumpstarted its M&amp;A ambitions. Late August, Tokio Marine (also reportedly) identified Suncorp as its preferred takeover target 
Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024. IAG is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation. 


IAG AU: Greensill Settlement Removes Overhang. Tokio Marine Will Take Note

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods</li>
<li>This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.</li>
<li>Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.</li>
</ul>


There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods
This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.
Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.


Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.</li>
<li>The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.</li>
<li>HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.</li>
</ul>


Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

<ul>
<li>Tech faded over the day on the potential for further tariffs.</li>
<li>Suzuki Motor's secondary deal was priced 5% below the last.</li>
<li>Onsemi pulls the plug on its plans for ALGM, expect weakness for Sanken.</li>
</ul>


Tech faded over the day on the potential for further tariffs.
Suzuki Motor's secondary deal was priced 5% below the last.
Onsemi pulls the plug on its plans for ALGM, expect weakness for Sanken.


Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Gains for the US Markets, but New Curbs Loom

<ul>
<li>Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump's bill adds to fiscal imbalance.</li>
<li>Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.</li>
<li>Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.</li>
</ul>


Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump's bill adds to fiscal imbalance.
Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.
Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

IAG AU: Greensill Settlement Removes Overhang. Tokio Marine Will Take Note

Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play fopr Tokio Marine after it sold Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024. IAG is now...

David Blennerhassett

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Gains for the US Markets, but New Curbs Loom

Tech stocks declined due to concerns about additional tariffs, Suzuki Motor's secondary deal priced 5% lower than last, and Onsemi's decision to...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Investors fleeing US assets and Trump's bill adding to fiscal imbalance causing yields to rise further. New lows unlikely for big tech/AI, today's...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IAG AU: Greensill Settlement Removes Overhang. Tokio Marine Will Take Note

Suncorp was viewed as (potentially) a cleaner play fopr Tokio Marine after it sold Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024. IAG is now...

David Blennerhassett

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Gains for the US Markets, but New Curbs Loom

​Tech stocks declined due to concerns about additional tariffs, Suzuki Motor's secondary deal priced 5% lower than last, and Onsemi's decision to...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

​Investors fleeing US assets and Trump's bill adding to fiscal imbalance causing yields to rise further. New lows unlikely for big tech/AI, today's...

Andrew Jackson

Tech stocks declined due to concerns about additional tariffs, Suzuki Motor's secondary deal priced 5% lower than last, and Onsemi's decision to...

Investors fleeing US assets and Trump's bill adding to fiscal imbalance causing yields to rise further. New lows unlikely for big tech/AI, today's...