IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/875bc9d9-4bcf-4494-94b2-993dfe44d8e1?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FT reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> has identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> as its preferred acquisition target. Tokio Marine has previously flagged an interest in Australia.</li>
<li>A potential acquisition would likely require approvals from FIRB, APRA and the ACCC. While the process can be lengthy, the approvals should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37. </li>
</ul>


The FT reports that Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) has identified Suncorp (SUN AU) as its preferred acquisition target. Tokio Marine has previously flagged an interest in Australia.
A potential acquisition would likely require approvals from FIRB, APRA and the ACCC. While the process can be lengthy, the approvals should be forthcoming.
My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37. 


Suncorp (SUN AU): Tokio Marine’s Rumoured Preferred Acquisition Target

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).</li>
<li>The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.</li>
<li>Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish</li>
</ul>


Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish


Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

<ul>
<li>Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).</li>
<li>We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs</li>
</ul>


Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.
As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).
We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs


Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

Suncorp (SUN AU): Tokio Marine’s Rumoured Preferred Acquisition Target

My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37.

Arun George

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Upgrading Real Estate $XLRE $VNQ and Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals as $SPX, $COMP Take a Pause;...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Our view since late Sept remains unchanged: if $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish, as most signs point to this being a...

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

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