Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,477m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Softbank, Toyota Motor, Skylark, Keyence, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.</li>
</ul>


Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mazda’s domestic unit volume was up 24% in September, compared to an industrywide total of only 1.1%.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Q2 consensus EBIT estimates have come down by 32% since the release of Q1 results.</li>
<li>But the yield is over 6%, and the Payout ratio is only 17% even on the new estimates.</li>
</ul>


Mazda’s domestic unit volume was up 24% in September, compared to an industrywide total of only 1.1%.
Meanwhile, Q2 consensus EBIT estimates have come down by 32% since the release of Q1 results.
But the yield is over 6%, and the Payout ratio is only 17% even on the new estimates.


Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan launches IC Taiwan Grand Challenge to attract innovative teams and talent, offering opportunities to showcase skills and win prizes.</li>
<li>Navigating AI investments during upgrades: on-premise or cloud computing? Make informed choices for hardware and software advancements.</li>
<li>Taiwan's LEO satellite program readiness questioned; virtual power plants used in Taiwan and Japan to mitigate earthquake risks; TPCA partners with Taiwanese industry association to boost talent and supply chains for Thai electronics manufacturing growth; Intel appoints new head of foundry services.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan launches IC Taiwan Grand Challenge to attract innovative teams and talent, offering opportunities to showcase skills and win prizes.
Navigating AI investments during upgrades: on-premise or cloud computing? Make informed choices for hardware and software advancements.
Taiwan's LEO satellite program readiness questioned; virtual power plants used in Taiwan and Japan to mitigate earthquake risks; TPCA partners with Taiwanese industry association to boost talent and supply chains for Thai electronics manufacturing growth; Intel appoints new head of foundry services.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-May-2024): Taiwan announces IC Taiwan Grand Challenge Competition.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> to buy.</li>
<li>It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.</li>
<li>I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.


FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

Japan

Tokyo Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, and distributes electricity.  The Company uses hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power sources.  Tokyo Electric Power distributes electricity in the Kanto area, which includes the Tokyo metro area, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama prefectures.

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Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 6th): Advantest, Sbi Sumishin Net Bank, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Sbi Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), Toyota...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Unloved Japan Roundup: Bracing for Q3

Mazda’s domestic volume up 24% in September, compared to industrywide average of 1.1%. Q2 estimates down by 32% in 3 months, but yield over 6%,...

Michael Allen

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-May-2024): Taiwan announces IC Taiwan Grand Challenge Competition.

Taiwan launches IC Taiwan Grand Challenge to attract innovation, LEO satellite program progresses, virtual power plants in Taiwan and Japan, TPCA...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

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