Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>TOPIX Inclusions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baudroie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44459:1" rel="noopener">Baudroie (4413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> took place at the end of April 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-concept-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34323:1" rel="noopener">Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP)</a> continues to be in our watchlist as a potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) took place at the end of April 2025.

Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) continues to be in our watchlist as a potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&amp;A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.</li>
<li>This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.</li>
<li>Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of &gt;2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with &gt;US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.</li>
</ul>


This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&amp;A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of &gt;2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with &gt;US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.


The End-April TOPIX Rebalance - US$2.1bn a Side

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>The TOPIX Inclusions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baudroie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44459:1" rel="noopener">Baudroie (4413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.</li>
<li>Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
The TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.
Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!


The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.</li>
<li>With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX INDEX</a> inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.

TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

Japan

Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd. operates railway businesses. The Company conducts passenger rail transportation, urban design and lifestyle creation, real estate, and other projects. Tokyo Metro serves customers in Japan.

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Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)

Tokyo Metro performed exactly as we expected before and after the 0.75X TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal announcement in early-April 2025. The flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance - US$2.1bn a Side

There is US$2bn a side to trade on 28 April at the close for a variety of reasons. It is a big month of events with a long list of trades which...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

There are currently 91 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 127 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

History shows (see Discussion Point) that "the right trade" is to be outright long TOPIX from today at the close to sell Friday (dividend ex-date)...

Travis Lundy

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

JX Advanced Metals starts trading today. The grey market is reportedly trading at JPY 790/share, down 3.66% from the IPO price. With a large...

Brian Freitas

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