Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation</li>
<li>This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD</li>
<li>The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates</li>
</ul>


New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation
This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD
The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?</li>
<li>JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?
JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.
Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025</li>
<li>Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative</li>
<li>Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key</li>
</ul>


Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025
Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative
Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key


Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades.</li>
<li>Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a higher inflation forecast. Here is our preview!</li>
<li>It is a no-brainer for the BoJ to increase the inflation forecast given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision? The short answer is yes. </li>
</ul>


It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades.
Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a higher inflation forecast. Here is our preview!
It is a no-brainer for the BoJ to increase the inflation forecast given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision? The short answer is yes. 


Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In the past, TOPIX Inclusions took place when qualifying companies voluntarily applied for Prime Market memberships. Unlike most indices, TOPIX index membership was not based on a periodic selection process. </li>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights tracked companies which were able to satisfy the Key Section Transfer requirements to identify potential TOPIX Inclusions over the last few years.</li>
<li>With a new selection methodology about to become effective soon, this will be the final insights in the "Who is Ready" series.</li>
</ul>


In the past, TOPIX Inclusions took place when qualifying companies voluntarily applied for Prime Market memberships. Unlike most indices, TOPIX index membership was not based on a periodic selection process. 
Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights tracked companies which were able to satisfy the Key Section Transfer requirements to identify potential TOPIX Inclusions over the last few years.
With a new selection methodology about to become effective soon, this will be the final insights in the "Who is Ready" series.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2026) - End of Series; New Methodology Next

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Banking on the BoJ

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

The Federal Reserve plans to cut rates three times in 2024 and a total of 175bps by end 2025, keeping policy accommodative. BOJ remains loose....

Rikki Malik

Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades. Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a...

Steno Research

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2026) - End of Series; New Methodology Next

There are currently 149 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 147 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Banking on the BoJ

​New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

The Federal Reserve plans to cut rates three times in 2024 and a total of 175bps by end 2025, keeping policy accommodative. BOJ remains loose....

Rikki Malik

Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades. Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a...

Steno Research

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2026) - End of Series; New Methodology Next

There are currently 149 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 147 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market