Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

<ul>
<li>Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's meeting with US President Trump shines the spotlight on potential US tariffs on Japanese cars. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor's (7203 JP)</a> high implied volatility expresses elevated risk.</li>
<li>Risk analysis suggests a range of option strategies. Implementation is challenging due to low liquidity in the Japanese market.</li>
<li>Option liquidity is higher in the US traded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8245:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor Corp Spon ADR (TM US)</a> which is the preferred route of implementation.</li>
</ul>


Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's meeting with US President Trump shines the spotlight on potential US tariffs on Japanese cars. Toyota Motor's (7203 JP) high implied volatility expresses elevated risk.
Risk analysis suggests a range of option strategies. Implementation is challenging due to low liquidity in the Japanese market.
Option liquidity is higher in the US traded Toyota Motor Corp Spon ADR (TM US) which is the preferred route of implementation.


EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) - Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

<ul>
<li>Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin</li>
<li>Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.</li>
<li>Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.</li>
</ul>


Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "<strong>Who is Ready</strong>" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co (9229 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet (7095 JP)</a> have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet</a> was in our highest conviction list but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co</a> was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.

Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) - Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

Toyota Motor's high implied volatility indicates elevated risk due to potential US tariffs but offers opportunity as well.

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

We have revised our framework to improve the weightings for the key factors in the TSE Prime transfer requirements. Now we see 81 names that can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) - Option Opportunities Amid Tariff Tension

Toyota Motor's high implied volatility indicates elevated risk due to potential US tariffs but offers opportunity as well.

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

​Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

We have revised our framework to improve the weightings for the key factors in the TSE Prime transfer requirements. Now we see 81 names that can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...