Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Tokyu may have just sold off its Tokyu Plaza building in Ginza but it is continuing to invest in retail.</li>
<li>In particular, it will focus on newand upgraded retail facilities along the main Tokyu railway lines over the next decade,</li>
<li>To make this happen and improve efficiency, it will merge its retail businesses into a more efficient, centralised core this summer.</li>
</ul>


Tokyu may have just sold off its Tokyu Plaza building in Ginza but it is continuing to invest in retail.
In particular, it will focus on newand upgraded retail facilities along the main Tokyu railway lines over the next decade,
To make this happen and improve efficiency, it will merge its retail businesses into a more efficient, centralised core this summer.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If you don't think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is cheap to its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>. How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.</li>
</ul>


If you don't think Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.

ENN Energy (2688 HK)'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3357:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Corp (9005 JP)</a> announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.</li>
<li>This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hankyu-hanshin-reit-8977-good-fundamental-news-a-bigly-buyback-and-cascading-flows-to-come" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward. </li>
<li>The main reason? Squeeze the 'share' price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That's not bad. The goal is a higher price.</li>
</ul>


Today, Tokyu Corp (9005 JP) announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.
This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed here. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward. 
The main reason? Squeeze the 'share' price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That's not bad. The goal is a higher price.


Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again - Bigger Than You Think It Is

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.</li>
<li>There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It's worth thinking about. </li>
<li>This was priced "cheap" but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.
There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It's worth thinking about. 
This was priced "cheap" but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.


The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

Japan

TOKYU CORPORATION provides passenger rail transportation, bus transportation, truckload services, and air transportation serving the Tokyo and its surrounding areas.  The Company operates department stores, real estate leasing, and hotel businesses.  Through its subsidiaries, Tokyu offers leisure-related services such as travel agents, theaters. golf, and rent car agents.

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Tokyu Corp (9005 JP)

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tokyu Revamps Retail Business

Tokyu sells off Ginza building but remains committed to investing in retail, focusing on new facilities along railway lines and merging retail...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again - Bigger Than You Think It Is

Tokyu bought 5% of Tokyu REIT from Sep24 to March25. They have now reloaded for another 5%. Float is not that big. And the REIT is under-levered,...

Travis Lundy

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

The Tokyo Metro IPO is 23 October. There is substantial index buying demand at month end of both Oct/Nov, then a lull. Flippers will flip, the...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tokyu Revamps Retail Business

​Tokyu sells off Ginza building but remains committed to investing in retail, focusing on new facilities along railway lines and merging retail...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again - Bigger Than You Think It Is

Tokyu bought 5% of Tokyu REIT from Sep24 to March25. They have now reloaded for another 5%. Float is not that big. And the REIT is under-levered,...

Travis Lundy

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

The Tokyo Metro IPO is 23 October. There is substantial index buying demand at month end of both Oct/Nov, then a lull. Flippers will flip, the...

Travis Lundy

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Tokyu sells off Ginza building but remains committed to investing in retail, focusing on new facilities along railway lines and merging retail...