Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 11th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in China Mobile, Sinopec, Ishares A50, Smic, CNOOC, Meituan, Kuaishou, Tracker Fund.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 11th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in China Mobile, Sinopec, Ishares A50, Smic, CNOOC, Meituan, Kuaishou, Tracker Fund.


HK Short Interest Weekly: China Mobile, Sinopec, Smic, CNOOC, Meituan, Kuaishou

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Wanda sells hotel business to Tencent-backed firm for $347M, indicating a strategic shift in their business operations.</li><li>Keppel raises $1.5B for data centre, education funds, and urban renewal, showing a focus on diverse investments.</li><li>Cushman &amp; Wakefield appoints Matthew Bouw as APAC CEO for EMEA, highlighting leadership changes in the real estate industry.</li></ul>

Wanda sells hotel business to Tencent-backed firm for $347M, indicating a strategic shift in their business operations.Keppel raises $1.5B for data centre, education funds, and urban renewal, showing a focus on diverse investments.Cushman &amp; Wakefield appoints Matthew Bouw as APAC CEO for EMEA, highlighting leadership changes in the real estate industry.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both inline with Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>We reiterate our positive view on TC given its robust earnings growth outlook and we believe its business growth is mainly driven by domestic demand and is relatively immune to the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.</li><li>Our 25%/18% YoY growth forecast for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP in 2025E remains unchanged, and we see supporting factors coming from: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to achieve further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidies provided; 2) international business turnaround from the loss-making stage and contribution of profits. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both inline with Bloomberg consensus.We reiterate our positive view on TC given its robust earnings growth outlook and we believe its business growth is mainly driven by domestic demand and is relatively immune to the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.Our 25%/18% YoY growth forecast for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP in 2025E remains unchanged, and we see supporting factors coming from: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to achieve further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidies provided; 2) international business turnaround from the loss-making stage and contribution of profits. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Expecting Inline 1Q Results

Hong Kong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited is an investment holding company providing travel-related services in the People's Republic of China. It offers accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, online advertising, hotel management, tourist attraction tickets, and packaged tours through its online platforms, mobile apps, and websites. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

HK Short Interest Weekly: China Mobile, Sinopec, Smic, CNOOC, Meituan, Kuaishou

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 11th and highlight short interest changes in China Mobile, Sinopec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Real Estate Tracker (22-Apr-2025): Wanda sells hotel business for $347M.

Wanda sells hotel business, Keppel raises $1.5B for various funds, and Cushman & Wakefield names new CEO for the APAC region.

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

Collectively, we expect more than US$1bn index inflows for NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), and NIO (9866 HK) from...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Expecting Inline 1Q Results

For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both...

CMB International

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