Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.</li>
<li>The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>On 3/31/25 we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a></li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.
The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
On 3/31/25 we sold Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) , Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) , Sands China (1928 HK) , and Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Combined January-February activity indicates demand growth continues to slow down</li>
<li>Similarly, capacity restoration &amp; load factors on outbound flights appear to have stagnated </li>
<li>We expect shares of Chinese airlines to continue to outperform travel platform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


Combined January-February activity indicates demand growth continues to slow down
Similarly, capacity restoration &amp; load factors on outbound flights appear to have stagnated 
We expect shares of Chinese airlines to continue to outperform travel platform Trip.com


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 35% YoY (3Q24: 51% YoY), 5% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates, due to the beat in revenue of accommodation reservation and Tourism business; adjusted NP was RMB660mn, up 37% YoY, and was 7% better than consensus.</li><li>OPM of core OTA businesses improved to 28.4% in 4Q24 (4Q23: 23.6%), driven by optimization of marketing strategies.</li><li>For 2024, total revenue grew 46% YoY to RMB17.3bn, and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB2.8bn, up 27% YoY. Looking into 2025, although Tourism business likely faces some short-term headwinds, core OTA business could still deliver solid earnings growth, driven by: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to drive for further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidy provided; 2) international business turnaround from loss-making stage and start to contribute profits. We are looking for 25%/18% YoY growth for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 35% YoY (3Q24: 51% YoY), 5% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates, due to the beat in revenue of accommodation reservation and Tourism business; adjusted NP was RMB660mn, up 37% YoY, and was 7% better than consensus.OPM of core OTA businesses improved to 28.4% in 4Q24 (4Q23: 23.6%), driven by optimization of marketing strategies.For 2024, total revenue grew 46% YoY to RMB17.3bn, and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB2.8bn, up 27% YoY. Looking into 2025, although Tourism business likely faces some short-term headwinds, core OTA business could still deliver solid earnings growth, driven by: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to drive for further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidy provided; 2) international business turnaround from loss-making stage and start to contribute profits. We are looking for 25%/18% YoY growth for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - 4Q Earnings Beat

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

<ul>
<li>Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)</li>
<li>Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted</li>
</ul>


Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics
Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)
Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

Hong Kong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited is an investment holding company providing travel-related services in the People's Republic of China. It offers accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, online advertising, hotel management, tourist attraction tickets, and packaged tours through its online platforms, mobile apps, and websites. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%. Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong...

David Mudd

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

The growth of Chinese travel demand appeared to slow in the first two months of 2025. We believe the Chinese airlines can continue to outperform...

Tracking Traffic