Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Trade data for February 2021 (due next week), the first for the Biden era, will be scrutinized for bilateral deficits. In 2020, the US' bilateral deficits with only 3 of its top-10 trade partners declined -- Canada, Japan and Germany -- suggesting that Trump tariffs on steel and aluminium had worked partially. The US deficit with China declined sharply in 2019 and in Jan-Oct 2020, but mysteriously widened in the next 3 months. The US suspects that big deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia reflect transshipment of mainland-China products via those countries, and they are consequently already coming under some pressure. The trade war may not heat up further under Biden, but it will not cool down anytime soon. The US had a trade deficit of US$916 billion in 2020, 6% larger than in 2019, with exports down 14.1% YoY and imports down 6.6% YoY. But with net tourist and student inflows to the US down sharply, the current account deficit widened by as much as 35% to US$647 billion or 3.1% of GDP in 2020 (the largest in a decade, but much lower than the 2006 peak of 6% of GDP). US bilateral trade deficits with Canada, Japan and Germany (which are among top-5 trade partners) declined in 2020, suggesting that the impact of the steel and aluminium tariffs imposed early in the Trump term were beginning to finally pay off at least partly. Importantly, for the second consecutive year, the bilateral trade deficit with China declined (by a modest 3.6% YoY) to US$311 billion, the lowest since 2011. That bilateral deficit had widened in 2017 and 2018 (while Trump was only threatening but not actually imposing any tariffs). The imposition of tariffs on China's imports in 2019 (extended in 2020 to nearly half of goods imports from China) did contribute to reducing the US bilateral trade deficit with China. However, US imports from China increased 23.8% YoY in November-December 2020 (immediately after the US election), having declined in 9 of the first 10 months of 2020, and rose 17.5% YoY in Jan 2021.  The beneficiaries of export diversion from China were Vietnam, Switzerland, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia, who saw US imports from them rise significantly in 2020 -- thereby also widening the US' bilateral trade deficits with them in 2020. The US believes that at least some of these countries' widening trade surpluses with the US reflect Chinese exports being transshipped to the US via those countries. So the Biden administration is likely to pay increased attention not only to the bilateral trade deficit with China (which has mysteriously risen sharply again since the election), but also bilateral deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, etc., which may reflect the impact of transshipment of mainland-Chinese products into the US.

Trade data for February 2021 (due next week), the first for the Biden era, will be scrutinized for bilateral deficits. In 2020, the US' bilateral deficits with only 3 of its top-10 trade partners declined -- Canada, Japan and Germany -- suggesting that Trump tariffs on steel and aluminium had worked partially. The US deficit with China declined sharply in 2019 and in Jan-Oct 2020, but mysteriously widened in the next 3 months. The US suspects that big deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia reflect transshipment of mainland-China products via those countries, and they are consequently already coming under some pressure. The trade war may not heat up further under Biden, but it will not cool down anytime soon. The US had a trade deficit of US$916 billion in 2020, 6% larger than in 2019, with exports down 14.1% YoY and imports down 6.6% YoY. But with net tourist and student inflows to the US down sharply, the current account deficit widened by as much as 35% to US$647 billion or 3.1% of GDP in 2020 (the largest in a decade, but much lower than the 2006 peak of 6% of GDP). US bilateral trade deficits with Canada, Japan and Germany (which are among top-5 trade partners) declined in 2020, suggesting that the impact of the steel and aluminium tariffs imposed early in the Trump term were beginning to finally pay off at least partly. Importantly, for the second consecutive year, the bilateral trade deficit with China declined (by a modest 3.6% YoY) to US$311 billion, the lowest since 2011. That bilateral deficit had widened in 2017 and 2018 (while Trump was only threatening but not actually imposing any tariffs). The imposition of tariffs on China's imports in 2019 (extended in 2020 to nearly half of goods imports from China) did contribute to reducing the US bilateral trade deficit with China. However, US imports from China increased 23.8% YoY in November-December 2020 (immediately after the US election), having declined in 9 of the first 10 months of 2020, and rose 17.5% YoY in Jan 2021.  The beneficiaries of export diversion from China were Vietnam, Switzerland, Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia, who saw US imports from them rise significantly in 2020 -- thereby also widening the US' bilateral trade deficits with them in 2020. The US believes that at least some of these countries' widening trade surpluses with the US reflect Chinese exports being transshipped to the US via those countries. So the Biden administration is likely to pay increased attention not only to the bilateral trade deficit with China (which has mysteriously risen sharply again since the election), but also bilateral deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, etc., which may reflect the impact of transshipment of mainland-Chinese products into the US. 

US: Trump's Record Card on Trade Mixed; China Trade Already Challenging Biden

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated short interest is USD528m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in MY EG Services, Datasonic, Axiata, YTL, CIMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated short interest is USD528m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in MY EG Services, Datasonic, Axiata, YTL, CIMB.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 3rd): MY EG Services, Datasonic, Axiata, YTL, CIMB

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huawei-technologies-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1" rel="noopener">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Huawei Technology (40978Z CH), Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), ByteDance (1460967D CH), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Baidu (BIDU US), China Mobile (941 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) 

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 22 January 2021

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Less than a year since the news hit that the Chinese outbreak spread to the world, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> has announced its vaccine with more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection. Similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-outbreak-theme-winners-and-losers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35971" rel="noopener">China Outbreak Theme: Winners and Losers</a> , this insight will discuss the potential winners and losers from the announcement of the vaccine. Travel-related names such as airlines, airport operators, tour operators, the duty-free operators are the clear beneficiaries of this news while auto dealership will also benefit from the potential lower unemployment later on. Instant noodle makers, pc makers that benefit from the work-from-home rush, as well as glove makers will no longer enjoy the same growth rate in 1H, and in the case of the glove makers, both ASP and volumes may see a decline.

Less than a year since the news hit that the Chinese outbreak spread to the world, Pfizer Inc (PFE US) has announced its vaccine with more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection. Similar to China Outbreak Theme: Winners and Losers , this insight will discuss the potential winners and losers from the announcement of the vaccine. Travel-related names such as airlines, airport operators, tour operators, the duty-free operators are the clear beneficiaries of this news while auto dealership will also benefit from the potential lower unemployment later on. Instant noodle makers, pc makers that benefit from the work-from-home rush, as well as glove makers will no longer enjoy the same growth rate in 1H, and in the case of the glove makers, both ASP and volumes may see a decline. 

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated short interest is USD519m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Maxis, YTL, Matrix Concepts, Sime Darby, Datasonic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated short interest is USD519m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Maxis, YTL, Matrix Concepts, Sime Darby, Datasonic.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Maxis, YTL, Matrix Concepts, Sime Darby, Datasonic

Malaysia

Top Glove Corporation Bhd manufactures a wide range of latex gloves.  The Company's products include latex examination powdered, latex examination powderfree, nitrile examination gloves,soft nitrile examination gloves, vinyl examination gloves, surgical gloves, and other related products.

Price Gauge
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Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)

US: Trump's Record Card on Trade Mixed; China Trade Already Challenging Biden

The US bilateral trade deficit with China declined in 2019 & Jan-Oct 20, but rose in the 3 post-election months. Focus is turning to transshipment...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 3rd): MY EG Services, Datasonic, Axiata, YTL, CIMB

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in MY EG Services, Datasonic, Axiata,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 22 January 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Pfizer Vaccine: Winners and Losers

Similar to China Outbreak Theme: Winners and Losers , this insight will discuss the potential winners and losers from the announcement of the vaccine.

Henry Soediarko

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Maxis, YTL, Matrix Concepts, Sime Darby, Datasonic

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Maxis, YTL, Matrix Concepts, Sime...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)