Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the "Fourth Megabank" strategy.</li>
<li>Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI's majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.</li>
<li>The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the "Fourth Megabank" strategy.
Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI's majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.
The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Jafco divests overseas operations to focus on domestic capital markets</li>
<li>The company continues to focus on shareholder returns in a meaningful way</li>
<li>Domestic venture capital returns exceed overseas returns historically and the future looks bright</li>
</ul>


Jafco divests overseas operations to focus on domestic capital markets
The company continues to focus on shareholder returns in a meaningful way
Domestic venture capital returns exceed overseas returns historically and the future looks bright


Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】.  But they did not actually shame.</li>
<li>The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links. On Feb 1, the TSE put out a <strong><a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/u5j7e50000001bqd-att/240201en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a></strong> and set of <strong><a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/u5j7e50000001bqd-att/240201en2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">case studies</a>.</strong>
</li>
<li>Designed to present the "Investor's Point of View", they have unexpectedly worthwhile advice/commentary for corporates. The TSE appears to be trying hard to prompt serious consideration rather than box-ticking.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】.  But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links. On Feb 1, the TSE put out a presentation and set of case studies.

Designed to present the "Investor's Point of View", they have unexpectedly worthwhile advice/commentary for corporates. The TSE appears to be trying hard to prompt serious consideration rather than box-ticking.


Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

<ul>
<li>In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.</li>
<li>This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.</li>
<li>The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.</li>
</ul>


In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.
This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.
The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.


Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> aims to sell around US$9bn worth of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, trimming its stake by a third.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-placement-deal-structure-past-deals-index-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96666" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank Placement - Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-placement-misbehaving-still-has-time-to-correct-a-look-at-past-deals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97201" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank Placement - Misbehaving</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at the post pricing performance of a few more deals.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$9bn worth of  Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third.
We have looked at the deal in our previous notes, Japan Post Bank Placement - Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback and Japan Post Bank Placement - Misbehaving. 
In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at the post pricing performance of a few more deals.


Japan Post Bank Placement -  Still Misbehaving - Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals

Japan

TOPIX-Banks Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the banks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is one of the 33 industry sectors of the TOPIX Index (TPX). The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 6, 1992. The parent index is TPX.

TOPIX Banks Index (TPNBNK INDEX)

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jay Cameron

Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!

Jafco shifts focus to domestic capital markets, prioritizing shareholder returns with promising future prospects in domestic venture capital.

Rikki Malik

Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

The TSE update for this will come out in a day or two. There will be some commentary on the update. It is not meaningful yet, mostly because...

Travis Lundy

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

The BOJ moved to allow 10yr yields to climb higher, allowing an explicit opportunity for the curve to steepen if US policy tightens. This could...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank Placement - Still Misbehaving - Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals

Japan Post Holdings aims to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

​SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jay Cameron

Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!

​Jafco shifts focus to domestic capital markets, prioritizing shareholder returns with promising future prospects in domestic venture capital.

Rikki Malik

Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

The TSE update for this will come out in a day or two. There will be some commentary on the update. It is not meaningful yet, mostly because...

Travis Lundy

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

The BOJ moved to allow 10yr yields to climb higher, allowing an explicit opportunity for the curve to steepen if US policy tightens. This could...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank Placement - Still Misbehaving - Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals

Japan Post Holdings aims to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jafco shifts focus to domestic capital markets, prioritizing shareholder returns with promising future prospects in domestic venture capital.