Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dual-Listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tourism-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2787:1" rel="noopener">Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)</a>, the world's largest commercial recreation vehicle (RV) rental operator, announced this morning an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the Trouchet family. </li>
<li>The consortium is offering, by way of a Scheme, NZ$2.30/share. THL traded higher thirteen months ago, before announcing a significant profit warning in May sent shares down 36%.</li>
<li>BGH, now holding 19.9% (including the Trouchet's family stake), is capitalising on a “sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the US”, and "elevated cancellations of existing bookings".</li>
</ul>


Dual-Listed Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), the world's largest commercial recreation vehicle (RV) rental operator, announced this morning an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the Trouchet family. 
The consortium is offering, by way of a Scheme, NZ$2.30/share. THL traded higher thirteen months ago, before announcing a significant profit warning in May sent shares down 36%.
BGH, now holding 19.9% (including the Trouchet's family stake), is capitalising on a “sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the US”, and "elevated cancellations of existing bookings".


BGH Seeks To Steer Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) Out Of A Rut

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

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Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings' recent trading update leads to a material downgrade in near-term earnings expectations due to deteriorating vehicle sales demand, particularly in North America.</li><li>Despite lower earnings, management remains confident with banking covenants and notes no need for new equity, with THL trading at a ~30% discount to its net tangible asset value.</li><li>The company maintains an OUTPERFORM rating, though investors are advised to be patient.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings' recent trading update leads to a material downgrade in near-term earnings expectations due to deteriorating vehicle sales demand, particularly in North America.Despite lower earnings, management remains confident with banking covenants and notes no need for new equity, with THL trading at a ~30% discount to its net tangible asset value.The company maintains an OUTPERFORM rating, though investors are advised to be patient.

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.</li><li>THL is trading at a ~20% discount to net tangible assets and at a one-year forward PE of ~6x on revised estimates, with an OUTPERFORM rating.</li><li>Google Trends data shows a modest weakening of RV buyer interest in North America, while Australasia remains stable.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.THL is trading at a ~20% discount to net tangible assets and at a one-year forward PE of ~6x on revised estimates, with an OUTPERFORM rating.Google Trends data shows a modest weakening of RV buyer interest in North America, while Australasia remains stable.

Tourism Holdings - A Rocky Road Eating Through the Rockies

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a soft 1H25 result, characterised by robust rentals but weak vehicle sales market conditions.</li><li>Notwithstanding the disappointing result, THL's New Zealand operations are performing well and generating attractive returns.</li><li>In contrast, profitability has declined in all other regions. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a soft 1H25 result, characterised by robust rentals but weak vehicle sales market conditions.Notwithstanding the disappointing result, THL's New Zealand operations are performing well and generating attractive returns.In contrast, profitability has declined in all other regions. 

Tourism Holdings - 1H25—Fortune Favours the Brave

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) will report a subdued 1H25 result on 25 February 2025, reflective of depressed vehicle sales market conditions.</li><li>We forecast underlying NPAT of NZ$33m, down ~-16% on the prior year.  Rental performance is likely to be robust with a positive North American peak season.</li><li>In contrast, new and used vehicle sales market conditions remain challenging with both volumes and margins below the prior year. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) will report a subdued 1H25 result on 25 February 2025, reflective of depressed vehicle sales market conditions.We forecast underlying NPAT of NZ$33m, down ~-16% on the prior year.  Rental performance is likely to be robust with a positive North American peak season.In contrast, new and used vehicle sales market conditions remain challenging with both volumes and margins below the prior year. 

Tourism Holdings - 1H25 Preview - Things Can Only Get Better

New Zealand

Tourism Holdings Limited provides tourist services in New Zealand and Australia. The Company's services include campervan and motor homes, car rentals and coach services.  The Company also offers sightseeing tours, Antarctic tourist centers, boating tours and cave expeditions.

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Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)

BGH Seeks To Steer Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) Out Of A Rut

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Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - A Rocky Road Eating Through the Rockies

Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - 1H25—Fortune Favours the Brave

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a soft 1H25 result, characterised by robust rentals but weak vehicle sales market conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - 1H25 Preview - Things Can Only Get Better

Tourism Holdings (THL) will report a subdued 1H25 result on 25 February 2025, reflective of depressed vehicle sales market conditions.

Forsyth Barr

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