Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).</li>
<li>Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO's ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO's foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.</li>
<li>Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small. </li>
</ul>


Two weeks ago, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) released a new Mid-Term Management Plan with a new investment plan, and a new capital plan (100% payout, ¥50/share minimum div til Mar-2026).
Obvious goal: get the stock above ¥1,000/share so YFO's ¥1,000 bid looks unattractive. Then they attacked on a FEFTA basis, saying YFO's foreign entities need permission to go over 10%.
Now Toyo has released a March 2024 forecast, with a ¥63/share dividend and 105% guided payout. The stock popped. LOTS of shares trading. Now only up small. 


Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast - 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, Toyo. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shl-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11571:1" rel="noopener">SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo. 
Lowest spreads  Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), SHL Japan Ltd (4327 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) - Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), Trial Holdings (5882 JP), PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) and Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments  Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (02 Apr) - AAG, Liontown, Mincor, Toshiba, Rakuten Bank, Trial, Harita Nickel

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> tilt; Malteries Soufflet's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a> Offer; Bain Capital's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia (EHE AU)</a> Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)'s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet's United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital's Estia (EHE AU) Offer. 
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

<ul>
<li>This morning, Reuters is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/takeover-target-nintendo-family-office-asks-japan-government-probe-2023-03-27" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reporting</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> has asked the Japanese government to investigate alleged breaches of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act by YFO. </li>
<li>Why? The Very Japanese family office of Nintendo's founding family used Cayman entities to purchase Toyo shares and Toyo was re-labeled as having businesses in "Core Sectors" in October 2021.</li>
<li>Toyo has also repeated its complaint about changed "intentions" on large shareholder filings. That bit of the complaint is 10 months old. A closer look at the details within.</li>
</ul>


This morning, Reuters is reporting that Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has asked the Japanese government to investigate alleged breaches of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act by YFO. 
Why? The Very Japanese family office of Nintendo's founding family used Cayman entities to purchase Toyo shares and Toyo was re-labeled as having businesses in "Core Sectors" in October 2021.
Toyo has also repeated its complaint about changed "intentions" on large shareholder filings. That bit of the complaint is 10 months old. A closer look at the details within.


Toyo Construction (1890) Tries a Different Tactic - FEFTA!

Japan

TOYO CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. performs marine civil engineering works. The Company provides reclamation and ground improvement works. Toyo Construction also constructs infrastructure such as water purification systems.  The Company builds commercial and institutional buildings, operating real estate businesses.

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Toyo Construction (1890 JP)

Toyo Construction FY23 Profit Forecast - 105% Payout = 6.5%, Lots of Shares Changing Hands

In Japan one doesn't usually officially announce the next FY's earnings + dividend forecast before the just-ended year is finalised. Toyo did. ¥63...

Travis Lundy

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Apr) - Toshiba, Toyo, AAG, Origin, United Malt, Liontown, Mincor, Healius

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (38.1%), Alliance Aviation (37.3%), Genesis (22.8%), Estia (13.2%), Tyro (11.5%), AAG (10.1%), Toyo...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Apr) - AAG, Liontown, Mincor, Toshiba, Rakuten Bank, Trial, Harita Nickel

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Healius, Liontown, Mincor, Nitro, Origin, United Malt, AAG, Toshiba, Toyo, Golden Energy)...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toyo Construction (1890) Tries a Different Tactic - FEFTA!

Toyo has apparently written a letter to the govt asking them to investigate whether the Japanese family of the Nintendo family office broke the...

Travis Lundy

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