Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong Beta Close in US Markets, with SPX +1.6%; US 10YR Yield retreated to under 4%; Tech  w/SOX +1.5%, led by BroadCom. +5.7%;  Ford +4% on strong EV demand</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY strenthens 135.8;  Expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes; Renesas, OAL, JAL added to NKY </li>
<li>NUGGET: Advantest looks best positioned to benefit from the emerging boom in Generative AI. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong Beta Close in US Markets, with SPX +1.6%; US 10YR Yield retreated to under 4%; Tech  w/SOX +1.5%, led by BroadCom. +5.7%;  Ford +4% on strong EV demand
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY strenthens 135.8;  Expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes; Renesas, OAL, JAL added to NKY 
NUGGET: Advantest looks best positioned to benefit from the emerging boom in Generative AI. 


Good Morning Japan | Equities - All Good (Again); Strong Tech Bid; EV, AI Drivers; NUGGET: Advantest

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<p>Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.</p>

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>Summer has historically not been a good time for stocks. TOPIX median performance from July 1 to the end of August is negative 5% and it only has a success rate of 36% over the last 22 years. So what names should you be looking at. </p><p>We screened for names that have a greater than 50% success rate and greater than 3% average return from the beginning of July to the end of August. </p><h2>Screen Results (Outperformers over the Summer)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/028/302/original/2.png?1497908923" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="28302"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1">Cosmos Pharmaceutical Corp (3349 JP)</a> tops the list…</p>

Summer has historically not been a good time for stocks. TOPIX median performance from July 1 to the end of August is negative 5% and it only has a success rate of 36% over the last 22 years. So what names should you be looking at. We screened for names that have a greater than 50% success rate and greater than 3% average return from the beginning of July to the end of August. Screen Results (Outperformers over the Summer)Source: Custom ProductsCosmos Pharmaceutical Corp (3349 JP) tops the list…

Names that Do Well in the Summer and Ones that Do Not.....

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p><strong>Chartonics flash </strong>Tuesday 30 August 2016</p><p><strong>USD/JPY macro low and position update webcast</strong></p><div>We have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…</div>

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big picture:<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong> selling 29% of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a></strong> is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Downer EDI (DOW AU)</strong></a>'s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. </li>
<li>Hong Kong broadband play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a></strong>said it has been approached by I Squares' HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. </li>
</ul>


Big picture: Japan Post (6178 JP) selling 29% of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. 

Downer EDI (DOW AU)'s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. 
Hong Kong broadband play HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)said it has been approached by I Squares' HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

Japan

TOYOBO CO., LTD. manufactures and sells natural and synthetic fibers. The Company specializes in synthetic fibers, cotton synthetic blends, wool, secondary textile products, and functional materials.  Toyobo also produces plastic films, biochemical products, and electronics and operates construction business.

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Toyobo Co Ltd (3101 JP)

Good Morning Japan | Equities - All Good (Again); Strong Tech Bid; EV, AI Drivers; NUGGET: Advantest

Strong close to US on Friday lead by Tech; In Japan. expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes;...

Mark Chadwick

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

Names that Do Well in the Summer and Ones that Do Not.....

Summer has historically not been a good time for stocks. TOPIX median performance from July 1 to the end of August is negative 5% and it only has a...

Custom Products Group

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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