Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.</li>
<li>We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.</li>
<li>Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.</li>
</ul>


Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.
We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.
Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.


Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.</li>
<li>The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.</li>
<li>However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.
The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.
However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Trip Com, Contemporary Amperex Technology and Xiaomi all hit fresh highs in EM fund ownership.</li>
<li>Rotation in all three was among the most positive across all China stocks, with all measures of fund ownership moving higher.</li>
<li>Conviction opens from GIB, Putnam and Aubrey we among the funds driving ownership higher.</li>
</ul>


Trip Com, Contemporary Amperex Technology and Xiaomi all hit fresh highs in EM fund ownership.
Rotation in all three was among the most positive across all China stocks, with all measures of fund ownership moving higher.
Conviction opens from GIB, Putnam and Aubrey we among the funds driving ownership higher.


Breaking New Ground: Xiaomi, Trip Com and CATL Hit Record Highs

<ul>
<li>In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.</li>
<li>We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024.</li>
<li>We are confident in the company’s financial performance, but the stock price is overvalued.</li>
</ul>


In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024.
We are confident in the company’s financial performance, but the stock price is overvalued.


Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Breaking New Ground: Xiaomi, Trip Com and CATL Hit Record Highs

Strong rotation pushes Trip Com, Contemporary Amperex Technology and Xiaomi Corp to fresh highs in EM active fund ownership.

Steven Holden

Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024. We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024. However, the stock...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

​Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Breaking New Ground: Xiaomi, Trip Com and CATL Hit Record Highs

Strong rotation pushes Trip Com, Contemporary Amperex Technology and Xiaomi Corp to fresh highs in EM active fund ownership.

Steven Holden

Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024. We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024. However, the stock...

Ming Lu

Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...