Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This week, JD.com launched its social gift feature more tightly integrated with Weixin than Alibaba. We believe Tencent's social gift feature will mainly serve as an advertising layer within e-commerce;</li>
<li>Consumption data is so so and heavily reliant on subsidies. More service-subsidies are needed from the government; </li>
<li>Outbound travel likely to cede to domestic during this CNY, benefiting local hotel chains like Atour.</li>
</ul>


This week, JD.com launched its social gift feature more tightly integrated with Weixin than Alibaba. We believe Tencent's social gift feature will mainly serve as an advertising layer within e-commerce;
Consumption data is so so and heavily reliant on subsidies. More service-subsidies are needed from the government; 
Outbound travel likely to cede to domestic during this CNY, benefiting local hotel chains like Atour.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote's Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China

<ul>
<li>We believe Tencent's inclusion in the US DoD CMC List and removal from USTR's NML are both non-events in the long run but not in the short run;</li>
<li>Latest data in holiday travel, parcel volume and home sales painted robust start in 2025, but unstable equity market posts a looming threat;</li>
<li>NetEase's newly released games were well-received and above our expectations. New game pipeline also brightens outlook.</li>
</ul>


We believe Tencent's inclusion in the US DoD CMC List and removal from USTR's NML are both non-events in the long run but not in the short run;
Latest data in holiday travel, parcel volume and home sales painted robust start in 2025, but unstable equity market posts a looming threat;
NetEase's newly released games were well-received and above our expectations. New game pipeline also brightens outlook.


Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is the only winner.</li>
<li>For 2025, the strategy will switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Props (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.</li>
</ul>


2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. Meituan (3690 HK) is the only winner.
For 2025, the strategy will switch to Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Hang Lung Props (101 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).  
The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.</li>
<li>The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-the-glass-is-half-full-time-to-buy-beta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:134396" rel="noopener">Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta</a> .</li>
<li>The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.</li>
</ul>


Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.


Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote's Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China

Consumption is still fragile with likely headwinds in January. More service subsidies are needed. RedNote's popularity signals more to come. US...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote's Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China

Consumption is still fragile with likely headwinds in January. More service subsidies are needed. RedNote's popularity signals more to come. US...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly Wrap (2/2025): Tencent's Inclusion and Exclusion from US Sanctions

​Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

​The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

Tencent's impact from CML and NML are short-term. Strong service start to 2025 showed promise. NetEase's games exceed expectations with promising...

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...